Gimnasia L.P. 1–2 Talleres Cordoba: Result & Stats

Gimnasia L.P.

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Talleres Cordoba

B. Merlini 7'

A. Schott 90'

F. Girotti 2'

10/11/2025

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 12Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Gimnasia L.P.39%

×Draw29%

Talleres Cordoba32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gimnasia L.P.Expected goals in this matchTalleres Cordoba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.02

Gimnasia L.P.

1.17

Talleres Cordoba

1.02

Gimnasia L.P. creates 15% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 18 away

1.07

creates per match

0.94

1.11

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Gimnasia L.P.

1.07

Talleres Cordoba

0.94

allows per match

Gimnasia L.P.

1.11

Talleres Cordoba

1.26

-0.24scores less than expected

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gimnasia L.P.-0.24scores less

Talleres Cordoba+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnasia L.P. ↓

Talleres Cordoba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Gimnasia L.P. or draw

68%

Gimnasia L.P. or Talleres Cordoba

71%

Draw or Talleres Cordoba

61%

Winning margin

Gimnasia L.P. wins by 2+

17%

Talleres Cordoba wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Gimnasia L.P. 1+ goals

69%

Gimnasia L.P. 2+ goals

33%

Gimnasia L.P. 3+ goals

11%

Talleres Cordoba 1+ goals

64%

Talleres Cordoba 2+ goals

27%

Talleres Cordoba 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Gimnasia L.P. (draw refunded)

55%

Talleres Cordoba (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnasia L.P. at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.11 · 23 matches

Talleres Cordoba away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.26 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnasia L.P. attack 1.07 + Talleres Cordoba defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.17

Talleres Cordoba attack 0.94 + Gimnasia L.P. defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Gimnasia L.P. scores more

39%

level

29%

Talleres Cordoba scores more

32%

Gimnasia L.P. at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Gimnasia L.P. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

G. Herrera

Talleres Cordoba · G

8.0

Match Events

2'

F. Girotti

7'

B. Merlini↳ A. Piedrahita

19'

Gabriel Báez

51'

Ulises Ortegoza

58'

M. Navarro← G. Baez Corradi

58'

L. Angulo← V. Depietri

62'

Germán Conti

64'

F. Torres← A. Piedrahita

64'

N. Briasco← B. Merlini

66'

Norberto Briasco

69'

Mateo Caceres

71'

E. Martinez← German Conti

71'

S. Lomonaco← M. Torres

74'

Luis Miguel Angulo

77'

R. Botta← Rick

77'

J. Mosqueira← U. Ortegoza

83'

J. Merlo← M. Panaro

85'

M. Gomez← M. A. Galarza

90'

A. Schott↳ M. Navarro

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GimnasiaTalleres

Overview

39%Possession61%

13Total Shots15

1.00Expected Goals (xG)0.88

0Corners6

12Fouls15

Shots

13Total Shots15

7On Target7

2Off Target4

4Blocked4

8Inside Box9

5Outside Box6

Passing

39%Possession61%

298Total Passes471

232Accurate Passes399

78%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

5Saves6

1.16Goals Prevented1.16

Discipline

12Fouls15

2Yellow Cards4

1Offsides3

Match Recap: Gimnasia L.P. vs Talleres Cordoba

Talleres Cordoba beat Gimnasia L.P. 2-1 in Liga Profesional Argentina on October 11, 2025.

Goals: F. Girotti (2'), B. Merlini (7'), A. Schott (90').

Talleres Cordoba controlled possession (61%) and registered 15 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo in La Plata.

Gimnasia L.P. vs Talleres Cordoba — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Gimnasia L.P. vs Talleres Cordoba