Talleres Cordoba 1–0 Estudiantes L.P.

Talleres Cordoba

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Estudiantes L.P.

R. Botta 44'

8/31/2024

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 13Estadio Mario Alberto Kempes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Talleres Cordoba41%

×Draw33%

Estudiantes L.P.26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Talleres CordobaExpected goals in this matchEstudiantes L.P.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

0.74

Talleres Cordoba

1.02

Estudiantes L.P.

0.74

Talleres Cordoba creates 38% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 14 away

0.98

creates per match

0.77

0.71

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Talleres Cordoba

0.98

Estudiantes L.P.

0.77

allows per match

Talleres Cordoba

0.71

Estudiantes L.P.

1.06

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

+0.23scores more than expected

finishing

Talleres Cordoba-0.10scores less

Estudiantes L.P.+0.23scores more

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Talleres Cordoba ↓

Estudiantes L.P. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–113%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

26%74%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Talleres Cordoba or draw

74%

Talleres Cordoba or Estudiantes L.P.

67%

Draw or Estudiantes L.P.

59%

Winning margin

Talleres Cordoba wins by 2+

16%

Estudiantes L.P. wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Talleres Cordoba 1+ goals

64%

Talleres Cordoba 2+ goals

27%

Talleres Cordoba 3+ goals

8%

Estudiantes L.P. 1+ goals

52%

Estudiantes L.P. 2+ goals

17%

Estudiantes L.P. 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Talleres Cordoba (draw refunded)

61%

Estudiantes L.P. (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Talleres Cordoba at home — creates 0.98, concedes 0.71 · 17 matches

Estudiantes L.P. away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.06 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Talleres Cordoba attack 0.98 + Estudiantes L.P. defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.02

Estudiantes L.P. attack 0.77 + Talleres Cordoba defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Talleres Cordoba scores more

41%

level

33%

Estudiantes L.P. scores more

26%

Talleres Cordoba at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Talleres Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

M. Portillo

Talleres Cordoba · M

8.0

Match Events

20'

Marcos Portillo

27'

G. Benedetti← S. Arzamendia

42'

Tiago Palacios

44'

R. Botta↳ M. Portillo

46'

L. Giménez← P. Piatti

60'

M. Esquivel← R. Botta

60'

L. Suárez← J. Rodríguez

61'

J. Portilla← M. Portillo

69'

A. Castillo Manyoma← E. Cetré

78'

S. Palacios← B. Barticciotto

80'

Luciano Giménez

80'

J. Sosa← G. Neves

85'

Gastón Benedetti

87'

C. Tarragona← F. Girotti

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TalleresEstudiantes

Overview

39%Possession61%

12Total Shots11

0.41Expected Goals (xG)1.10

4Corners4

4Fouls12

Shots

12Total Shots11

4On Target1

6Off Target6

2Blocked4

7Inside Box8

5Outside Box3

Passing

39%Possession61%

335Total Passes510

244Accurate Passes415

73%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

-0.13Goals Prevented-0.13

Discipline

4Fouls12

1Yellow Cards3

0Offsides1