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Estudiantes L.P. vs Talleres Cordoba — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Estudiantes L.P.
Estudiantes L.P.
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Talleres Cordoba
Talleres Cordoba
B. Rollheiser 50'
4/23/2023Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · Round 13Estadio Jorge Luis Hirschi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Estudiantes L.P.45%
×Draw28%
Talleres Cordoba27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estudiantes L.P.
1.31
Talleres Cordoba
0.94

Estudiantes L.P. creates 39% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 18 away

creates per match

Estudiantes L.P.
1.37
Talleres Cordoba
0.94

allows per match

Estudiantes L.P.
0.93
Talleres Cordoba
1.26

finishing

Estudiantes L.P.-0.14scores less
Talleres Cordoba+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estudiantes L.P. ↓

Talleres Cordoba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Estudiantes L.P. or draw
73%
Estudiantes L.P. or Talleres Cordoba
72%
Draw or Talleres Cordoba
55%

Winning margin

Estudiantes L.P. wins by 2+
21%
Talleres Cordoba wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Estudiantes L.P. 1+ goals
73%
Estudiantes L.P. 2+ goals
38%
Estudiantes L.P. 3+ goals
14%
Talleres Cordoba 1+ goals
61%
Talleres Cordoba 2+ goals
24%
Talleres Cordoba 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Estudiantes L.P. (draw refunded)
63%
Talleres Cordoba (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estudiantes L.P. at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.93 · 13 matches

Talleres Cordoba away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.26 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estudiantes L.P. attack 1.37 + Talleres Cordoba defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.31

Talleres Cordoba attack 0.94 + Estudiantes L.P. defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Estudiantes L.P. scores more
45%
level
28%
Talleres Cordoba scores more
27%

Estudiantes L.P. at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Estudiantes L.P. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
B. RollheiserEstudiantes L.P.Estudiantes L.P. · F
7.6

Match Events

23'
Fernando Zuqui
45+3'
Nicolás Pasquini
46'
D. Barrera← G. Álvez
46'
V. Depietri← F. Pizzini
50'
B. Rollheiser↳ L. Godoy
61'
Valentin Depietri
62'
Favio Álvarez← A. Franco
67'
Diego Barrera
73'
P. Piatti← F. Zuqui
74'
L. Sequeira← N. Pasquini
77'
Matías Catalán
78'
G. Carrillo← M. Boselli
82'
M. Godoy← B. Rollheiser
83'
Gastón Benedetti

Possession

45%Estudiantes

Shots

9Estudiantes

Pass accuracy

48%Estudiantes

Statistics

EstudiantesTalleres
Overview
45%Possession55%
9Total Shots4
4Corners6
15Fouls22
Shots
9Total Shots4
3On Target0
4Off Target2
2Blocked2
6Inside Box2
3Outside Box2
Passing
45%Possession55%
368Total Passes455
269Accurate Passes355
73%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
0Saves2
Discipline
15Fouls22
2Yellow Cards4
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Estudiantes L.P. vs Talleres Cordoba

Estudiantes L.P. beat Talleres Cordoba 1-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on April 23, 2023.

Goals: B. Rollheiser (50').

Talleres Cordoba controlled possession (55%) and registered 4 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Jorge Luis Hirschi in La Plata, Provincia de Buenos Aires.