Talleres Cordoba 2–0 Estudiantes L.P.

Talleres Cordoba

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Estudiantes L.P.

C. Auzqui 61'

M. Andújar 28' (OG)

8/31/2021

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 9Estadio Francisco Cabasés

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Talleres Cordoba41%

×Draw33%

Estudiantes L.P.26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Talleres CordobaExpected goals in this matchEstudiantes L.P.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

0.74

Talleres Cordoba

1.02

Estudiantes L.P.

0.74

Talleres Cordoba creates 38% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 14 away

0.98

creates per match

0.77

0.71

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Talleres Cordoba

0.98

Estudiantes L.P.

0.77

allows per match

Talleres Cordoba

0.71

Estudiantes L.P.

1.06

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

+0.23scores more than expected

finishing

Talleres Cordoba-0.10scores less

Estudiantes L.P.+0.23scores more

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Talleres Cordoba ↓

Estudiantes L.P. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–113%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

26%74%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Talleres Cordoba or draw

74%

Talleres Cordoba or Estudiantes L.P.

67%

Draw or Estudiantes L.P.

59%

Winning margin

Talleres Cordoba wins by 2+

16%

Estudiantes L.P. wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Talleres Cordoba 1+ goals

64%

Talleres Cordoba 2+ goals

27%

Talleres Cordoba 3+ goals

8%

Estudiantes L.P. 1+ goals

52%

Estudiantes L.P. 2+ goals

17%

Estudiantes L.P. 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Talleres Cordoba (draw refunded)

61%

Estudiantes L.P. (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Talleres Cordoba at home — creates 0.98, concedes 0.71 · 17 matches

Estudiantes L.P. away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.06 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Talleres Cordoba attack 0.98 + Estudiantes L.P. defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.02

Estudiantes L.P. attack 0.77 + Talleres Cordoba defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Talleres Cordoba scores more

41%

level

33%

Estudiantes L.P. scores more

26%

Talleres Cordoba at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Talleres Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

F. Zuqui

Estudiantes L.P. · M

8.5

Match Events

21'

Juan Komar

28'

M. AndújarOwn goal

39'

Enzo Díaz

48'

Matías Pellegrini

60'

J. Ayoví← M. Pellegrini

61'

C. Auzqui↳ N. Tenaglia

66'

M. Santos← H. Fértoli

66'

D. Valoyes← C. Auzqui

67'

68'

70'

74'

84'

D. García← Á. Martino

84'

J. Malatini← M. Retegui

84'

F. Zapiola← F. Apaolaza

84'

J. Sánchez← M. Castro

89'

Leonardo Godoy

90+1'

F. Mac Allister← I. Méndez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TalleresEstudiantes

Overview

48%Possession52%

7Total Shots11

2Corners9

23Fouls15

Shots

7Total Shots11

2On Target3

5Off Target6

0Blocked2

3Inside Box7

4Outside Box4

Passing

48%Possession52%

344Total Passes354

247Accurate Passes262

72%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

23Fouls15

4Yellow Cards4

1Offsides4