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Estudiantes L.P. vs Talleres Cordoba — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Estudiantes L.P.
Estudiantes L.P.
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Talleres Cordoba
Talleres Cordoba
L. Heredia 90+3'
8/14/2022Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 13Estadio Jorge Luis Hirschi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Estudiantes L.P.45%
×Draw28%
Talleres Cordoba27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estudiantes L.P.
1.31
Talleres Cordoba
0.94

Estudiantes L.P. creates 39% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 18 away

creates per match

Estudiantes L.P.
1.37
Talleres Cordoba
0.94

allows per match

Estudiantes L.P.
0.93
Talleres Cordoba
1.26

finishing

Estudiantes L.P.-0.14scores less
Talleres Cordoba+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estudiantes L.P. ↓

Talleres Cordoba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Estudiantes L.P. or draw
73%
Estudiantes L.P. or Talleres Cordoba
72%
Draw or Talleres Cordoba
55%

Winning margin

Estudiantes L.P. wins by 2+
21%
Talleres Cordoba wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Estudiantes L.P. 1+ goals
73%
Estudiantes L.P. 2+ goals
38%
Estudiantes L.P. 3+ goals
14%
Talleres Cordoba 1+ goals
61%
Talleres Cordoba 2+ goals
24%
Talleres Cordoba 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Estudiantes L.P. (draw refunded)
63%
Talleres Cordoba (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estudiantes L.P. at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.93 · 13 matches

Talleres Cordoba away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.26 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estudiantes L.P. attack 1.37 + Talleres Cordoba defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.31

Talleres Cordoba attack 0.94 + Estudiantes L.P. defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Estudiantes L.P. scores more
45%
level
28%
Talleres Cordoba scores more
27%

Estudiantes L.P. at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Estudiantes L.P. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
M. AndújarEstudiantes L.P.Estudiantes L.P. · G
7.5

Match Events

37'
Leandro Díaz
45+2'
Jorge Morel
46'
E. Mancuso← L. Lollo
46'
M. Méndez← L. Díaz
64'
B. Rollheiser← P. Piatti
72'
J. Buffarini← F. Pizzini
72'
D. Ortegoza← R. Garro
74'
Jorge Rodríguez
82'
F. Zapiola← M. Castro
82'
L. Heredia← M. Boselli
82'
J. Romero← M. Santos
89'
Agustín Rogel
90+3'
L. Heredia↳ E. Más

Possession

56%Estudiantes

Shots

8Estudiantes

Pass accuracy

51%Estudiantes

Statistics

EstudiantesTalleres
Overview
56%Possession44%
8Total Shots18
1Corners7
14Fouls16
Shots
8Total Shots18
2On Target3
6Off Target8
0Blocked7
5Inside Box10
3Outside Box8
Passing
56%Possession44%
399Total Passes305
278Accurate Passes205
70%Pass Accuracy67%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
14Fouls16
4Yellow Cards0
2Offsides4

Match Recap: Estudiantes L.P. vs Talleres Cordoba

Estudiantes L.P. beat Talleres Cordoba 1-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on August 14, 2022.

Goals: L. Heredia (90+3').

Estudiantes L.P. controlled possession (56%) and registered 8 shots to 18.

The match was played at Estadio Jorge Luis Hirschi in La Plata, Provincia de Buenos Aires.