Talleres Cordoba 2–0 Central Cordoba de Santiago

Talleres Cordoba

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Central Cordoba de Santiago

M. Santos 13'

F. Pizzini 3'

2/20/2023

Liga Profesional Argentina · Round 4Estadio Mario Alberto Kempes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Talleres Cordoba45%

×Draw28%

Central Cordoba de Santiago27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Talleres CordobaExpected goals in this matchCentral Cordoba de Santiago

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.93

Talleres Cordoba

1.31

Central Cordoba de Santiago

0.93

Talleres Cordoba creates 41% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 108 away

1.24

creates per match

0.96

0.89

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Talleres Cordoba

1.24

Central Cordoba de Santiago

0.96

allows per match

Talleres Cordoba

0.89

Central Cordoba de Santiago

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Talleres Cordoba+0.00on par

Central Cordoba de Santiago+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Talleres Cordoba ↓

Central Cordoba de Santiago →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Talleres Cordoba or draw

73%

Talleres Cordoba or Central Cordoba de Santiago

72%

Draw or Central Cordoba de Santiago

55%

Winning margin

Talleres Cordoba wins by 2+

21%

Central Cordoba de Santiago wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Talleres Cordoba 1+ goals

73%

Talleres Cordoba 2+ goals

38%

Talleres Cordoba 3+ goals

14%

Central Cordoba de Santiago 1+ goals

61%

Central Cordoba de Santiago 2+ goals

24%

Central Cordoba de Santiago 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Talleres Cordoba (draw refunded)

63%

Central Cordoba de Santiago (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Talleres Cordoba at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.89 · 120 matches

Central Cordoba de Santiago away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.38 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Talleres Cordoba attack 1.24 + Central Cordoba de Santiago defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.31

Central Cordoba de Santiago attack 0.96 + Talleres Cordoba defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Talleres Cordoba scores more

45%

level

28%

Central Cordoba de Santiago scores more

27%

Talleres Cordoba at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Talleres Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

F. Pizzini

Talleres Cordoba · M

8.5

Match Events

3'

F. Pizzini↳ A. Franco

13'

M. Santos↳ F. Pizzini

15'

M. Santos

46'

L. Besozzi← E. Kalinski

46'

60'

65'

69'

69'

L. Maciel← J. Soraire

73'

73'

79'

88'

89'

Favio Álvarez← R. Garro

90+1'

L. Besozzi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TalleresCentral

Overview

56%Possession44%

20Total Shots6

7Corners4

11Fouls6

Shots

20Total Shots6

6On Target2

10Off Target3

4Blocked1

15Inside Box5

5Outside Box1

Passing

56%Possession44%

557Total Passes437

458Accurate Passes325

82%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls6

2Yellow Cards2

0Offsides3

Liga Profesional Argentina: Talleres Cordoba 2–0 Central Cordoba de Santiago

Talleres Cordoba beat Central Cordoba de Santiago 2-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on February 20, 2023.

Goals: F. Pizzini (3'), M. Santos (13').

Talleres Cordoba controlled possession (56%) and registered 20 shots to 6.

The match was played at Estadio Mario Alberto Kempes in Ciudad de Córdoba, Provincia de Córdoba.

Talleres Cordoba vs Central Cordoba de Santiago — Liga Profesional Argentina 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Liga Profesional Argentina: Talleres Cordoba 2–0 Central Cordoba de Santiago