Central Cordoba de Santiago 2–4 Talleres Cordoba

Central Cordoba de Santiago

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Talleres Cordoba

T. Molina 74' (pen), 45+3'

G. Albarracín 78'

M. Portillo 69'

B. Barticciotto 48', 9'

6/2/2024

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 4Estadio Alfredo Terrera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Central Cordoba de Santiago48%

×Draw25%

Talleres Cordoba27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Central Cordoba de SantiagoExpected goals in this matchTalleres Cordoba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.12

Central Cordoba de Santiago

1.58

Talleres Cordoba

1.12

Central Cordoba de Santiago creates 41% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

1.36

creates per match

1.22

1.02

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Central Cordoba de Santiago

1.36

Talleres Cordoba

1.22

allows per match

Central Cordoba de Santiago

1.02

Talleres Cordoba

1.79

+0.44scores more than expected

finishing

-0.02on par

finishing

Central Cordoba de Santiago+0.44scores more

Talleres Cordoba-0.02on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Cordoba de Santiago ↓

Talleres Cordoba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Central Cordoba de Santiago or draw

73%

Central Cordoba de Santiago or Talleres Cordoba

75%

Draw or Talleres Cordoba

52%

Winning margin

Central Cordoba de Santiago wins by 2+

25%

Talleres Cordoba wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Central Cordoba de Santiago 1+ goals

79%

Central Cordoba de Santiago 2+ goals

47%

Central Cordoba de Santiago 3+ goals

21%

Talleres Cordoba 1+ goals

67%

Talleres Cordoba 2+ goals

31%

Talleres Cordoba 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Central Cordoba de Santiago (draw refunded)

64%

Talleres Cordoba (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Cordoba de Santiago at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.02 · 5 matches

Talleres Cordoba away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.79 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Cordoba de Santiago attack 1.36 + Talleres Cordoba defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.58

Talleres Cordoba attack 1.22 + Central Cordoba de Santiago defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Central Cordoba de Santiago scores more

48%

level

25%

Talleres Cordoba scores more

27%

Central Cordoba de Santiago at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Central Cordoba de Santiago will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

M. Portillo

Talleres Cordoba · M

9.2

Match Events

9'

B. Barticciotto

43'

Tomás MolinaGoal cancelled

45+1'

Kevin Vázquez

45+3'

T. Molina↳ S. Laquidaín

48'

B. Barticciotto↳ M. Portillo

59'

R. Cansinos← G. Álvez

61'

Gastón Benavídez

64'

G. Albarracín← M. Galarza

69'

M. Portillo

71'

Sebastián Valdez

74'

T. MolinaPenalty

77'

Óscar Garrido

77'

R. Sosa← B. Barticciotto

78'

G. Albarracín↳ G. Benavídez

82'

B. Leizza← O. Garrido

84'

B. Riveros← M. Navarro

84'

L. Sequeira← M. Portillo

84'

R. Ruíz Rodríguez← F. Girotti

90+1'

F. Monzón← T. Molina

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CentralTalleres

Overview

56%Possession44%

8Total Shots16

1.43Expected Goals (xG)1.70

5Corners0

11Fouls16

Shots

8Total Shots16

3On Target7

4Off Target7

1Blocked2

7Inside Box9

1Outside Box7

Passing

56%Possession44%

456Total Passes362

399Accurate Passes309

88%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

-0.03Goals Prevented-0.03

Discipline

11Fouls16

3Yellow Cards1

1Offsides4