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Central Cordoba de Santiago vs Talleres Cordoba — Liga Profesional Argentina 2018

Central Cordoba de Santiago
Central Cordoba de Santiago
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Talleres Cordoba
Talleres Cordoba
M. Giménez 90+1'
J. Komar 3' (OG)
E. Díaz 84'
7/29/2021Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 3Estadio Único Madre de Ciudades

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Central Cordoba de Santiago48%
×Draw25%
Talleres Cordoba27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Central Cordoba de Santiago
1.58
Talleres Cordoba
1.12

Central Cordoba de Santiago creates 41% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Central Cordoba de Santiago
1.36
Talleres Cordoba
1.22

allows per match

Central Cordoba de Santiago
1.02
Talleres Cordoba
1.79

finishing

Central Cordoba de Santiago+0.44scores more
Talleres Cordoba-0.02on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Cordoba de Santiago ↓

Talleres Cordoba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Central Cordoba de Santiago or draw
73%
Central Cordoba de Santiago or Talleres Cordoba
75%
Draw or Talleres Cordoba
52%

Winning margin

Central Cordoba de Santiago wins by 2+
25%
Talleres Cordoba wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Central Cordoba de Santiago 1+ goals
79%
Central Cordoba de Santiago 2+ goals
47%
Central Cordoba de Santiago 3+ goals
21%
Talleres Cordoba 1+ goals
67%
Talleres Cordoba 2+ goals
31%
Talleres Cordoba 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Central Cordoba de Santiago (draw refunded)
64%
Talleres Cordoba (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Cordoba de Santiago at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.02 · 5 matches

Talleres Cordoba away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.79 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Cordoba de Santiago attack 1.36 + Talleres Cordoba defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.58

Talleres Cordoba attack 1.22 + Central Cordoba de Santiago defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Central Cordoba de Santiago scores more
48%
level
25%
Talleres Cordoba scores more
27%

Central Cordoba de Santiago at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Central Cordoba de Santiago will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12
J. BayCentral Cordoba de SantiagoCentral Cordoba de Santiago · M
7.6

Match Events

3'
J. KomarOwn goal
46'
D. Valoyes← M. Sosa
52'
Gonzalo Bettini
58'
Francis Macallister
60'
M. Santos← M. Retegui
65'
I. Méndez← F. Mac Allister
65'
M. Ortiz← D. García
67'
Milton Giménez
71'
Enzo Díaz
80'
M. Mier← L. Sequeira
80'
Á. Martino← J. Komar
83'
Cristian Vega
84'
E. Díaz
86'
M. Montenegro← J. Galeano
87'
Alejandro Maciel
87'
Diego Valoyes
90+2'
D. Rentería← G. Bettini
90+3'
S. Ribas← M. Giménez
90+1'
M. Giménez↳ G. Bettini

Possession

26%Central

Shots

10Central

Pass accuracy

41%Central

Statistics

CentralTalleres
Overview
26%Possession74%
10Total Shots8
3Corners5
22Fouls12
Shots
10Total Shots8
3On Target1
6Off Target6
1Blocked1
6Inside Box4
4Outside Box4
Passing
26%Possession74%
195Total Passes586
112Accurate Passes483
57%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
0Saves2
Discipline
22Fouls12
4Yellow Cards3
3Offsides7

Match Recap: Central Cordoba de Santiago vs Talleres Cordoba

Central Cordoba de Santiago beat Talleres Cordoba 2-1 in Liga Profesional Argentina on July 29, 2021.

Goals: J. Komar (3' o.g.), E. Díaz (84'), M. Giménez (90+1').

Talleres Cordoba controlled possession (74%) and registered 8 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Único Madre de Ciudades in Santiago del Estero, Prov. de Santiago del Estero.