Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sydney vs Jeonbuk Motors — AFC Cup 2018

Sydney
Sydneyadvanced
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Jeonbuk Motors
Jeonbuk Motors
3/13/2025AFC CupAFC Cup · Quarter-finalsAllianz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Sydney38%
×Draw22%
Jeonbuk Motors40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sydney
1.77
Jeonbuk Motors
1.80

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Sydney
2.33
Jeonbuk Motors
2.60

allows per match

Sydney
1.00
Jeonbuk Motors
1.20

finishing

Sydney+0.00on par
Jeonbuk Motors+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sydney ↓

Jeonbuk Motors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Sydney or draw
60%
Sydney or Jeonbuk Motors
78%
Draw or Jeonbuk Motors
62%

Winning margin

Sydney wins by 2+
20%
Jeonbuk Motors wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Sydney 1+ goals
83%
Sydney 2+ goals
53%
Sydney 3+ goals
26%
Jeonbuk Motors 1+ goals
83%
Jeonbuk Motors 2+ goals
54%
Jeonbuk Motors 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Sydney (draw refunded)
49%
Jeonbuk Motors (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sydney at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Jeonbuk Motors away — creates 2.60, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sydney attack 2.33 + Jeonbuk Motors defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.77

Jeonbuk Motors attack 2.60 + Sydney defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sydney scores more
38%
level
22%
Jeonbuk Motors scores more
40%

Jeonbuk Motors at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Jeonbuk Motors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Cup: Sydney 3–2 Jeonbuk Motors

Sydney beat Jeonbuk Motors 3-2 in AFC Cup on March 13, 2025.

The match was played at Allianz Stadium in Sydney.