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Jeonbuk Motors vs Sydney FC — AFC Champions League 2018

Jeonbuk Motors
Jeonbuk Motors
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sydney FC
Sydney FC
11/25/2020AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 4Al Janoub Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Jeonbuk Motors56%
×Draw23%
Sydney FC21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jeonbuk Motors
1.80
Sydney FC
1.02

Jeonbuk Motors creates 76% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 12 away

creates per match

Jeonbuk Motors
2.18
Sydney FC
1.08

allows per match

Jeonbuk Motors
0.95
Sydney FC
1.42

finishing

Jeonbuk Motors+0.00on par
Sydney FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeonbuk Motors ↓

Sydney FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Jeonbuk Motors or draw
79%
Jeonbuk Motors or Sydney FC
77%
Draw or Sydney FC
44%

Winning margin

Jeonbuk Motors wins by 2+
31%
Sydney FC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Jeonbuk Motors 1+ goals
83%
Jeonbuk Motors 2+ goals
54%
Jeonbuk Motors 3+ goals
27%
Sydney FC 1+ goals
64%
Sydney FC 2+ goals
27%
Sydney FC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Jeonbuk Motors (draw refunded)
72%
Sydney FC (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jeonbuk Motors at home — creates 2.18, concedes 0.95 · 22 matches

Sydney FC away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.42 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jeonbuk Motors attack 2.18 + Sydney FC defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.80

Sydney FC attack 1.08 + Jeonbuk Motors defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Jeonbuk Motors scores more
56%
level
23%
Sydney FC scores more
21%

Jeonbuk Motors at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Jeonbuk Motors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jeonbuk Motors vs Sydney FC

Jeonbuk Motors beat Sydney FC 1-0 in AFC Champions League on November 25, 2020.

The match was played at Al Janoub Stadium in Al Wakrah.