Jeonbuk Motors 0–0 Sydney: Result & Stats

Jeonbuk Motors

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sydney

4/16/2022

AFC Champions League · Group Stage - 1Sân vận động Thống Nhất

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Jeonbuk Motors56%

×Draw23%

Sydney21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jeonbuk MotorsExpected goals in this matchSydney

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.02

Jeonbuk Motors

1.80

Sydney

1.02

Jeonbuk Motors creates 76% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 12 away

2.18

creates per match

1.08

0.95

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Jeonbuk Motors

2.18

Sydney

1.08

allows per match

Jeonbuk Motors

0.95

Sydney

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jeonbuk Motors+0.00on par

Sydney+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeonbuk Motors ↓

Sydney →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Jeonbuk Motors or draw

79%

Jeonbuk Motors or Sydney

77%

Draw or Sydney

44%

Winning margin

Jeonbuk Motors wins by 2+

31%

Sydney wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Jeonbuk Motors 1+ goals

83%

Jeonbuk Motors 2+ goals

54%

Jeonbuk Motors 3+ goals

27%

Sydney 1+ goals

64%

Sydney 2+ goals

27%

Sydney 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Jeonbuk Motors (draw refunded)

72%

Sydney (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jeonbuk Motors at home — creates 2.18, concedes 0.95 · 22 matches

Sydney away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.42 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jeonbuk Motors attack 2.18 + Sydney defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.80

Sydney attack 1.08 + Jeonbuk Motors defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Jeonbuk Motors scores more

56%

level

23%

Sydney scores more

21%

Jeonbuk Motors at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Jeonbuk Motors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff