Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sydney vs Jeonbuk Motors — AFC Champions League 2018

Sydney
Sydney
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Jeonbuk Motors
Jeonbuk Motors
4/28/2022AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 5Sân vận động Thống Nhất

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Sydney28%
×Draw24%
Jeonbuk Motors48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sydney
1.23
Jeonbuk Motors
1.70

Jeonbuk Motors creates 38% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 22 away

creates per match

Sydney
1.15
Jeonbuk Motors
1.77

allows per match

Sydney
1.62
Jeonbuk Motors
1.32

finishing

Sydney+0.00on par
Jeonbuk Motors+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sydney ↓

Jeonbuk Motors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Sydney or draw
52%
Sydney or Jeonbuk Motors
76%
Draw or Jeonbuk Motors
72%

Winning margin

Sydney wins by 2+
11%
Jeonbuk Motors wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Sydney 1+ goals
71%
Sydney 2+ goals
35%
Sydney 3+ goals
13%
Jeonbuk Motors 1+ goals
82%
Jeonbuk Motors 2+ goals
51%
Jeonbuk Motors 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Sydney (draw refunded)
36%
Jeonbuk Motors (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sydney at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

Jeonbuk Motors away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.32 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sydney attack 1.15 + Jeonbuk Motors defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.23

Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.77 + Sydney defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sydney scores more
28%
level
24%
Jeonbuk Motors scores more
48%

Jeonbuk Motors at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Jeonbuk Motors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sydney vs Jeonbuk Motors

Jeonbuk Motors beat Sydney 3-2 in AFC Champions League on April 28, 2022.

The match was played at Sân vận động Thống Nhất in Ho Chi Minh City.