Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sydney FC vs Jeonbuk Motors — AFC Champions League 2018

Sydney FC
Sydney FC
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Jeonbuk Motors
Jeonbuk Motors
3/4/2020AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 3Netstrata Jubilee Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Sydney FC28%
×Draw24%
Jeonbuk Motors48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sydney FC
1.23
Jeonbuk Motors
1.70

Jeonbuk Motors creates 38% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 22 away

creates per match

Sydney FC
1.15
Jeonbuk Motors
1.77

allows per match

Sydney FC
1.62
Jeonbuk Motors
1.32

finishing

Sydney FC+0.00on par
Jeonbuk Motors+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sydney FC ↓

Jeonbuk Motors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Sydney FC or draw
52%
Sydney FC or Jeonbuk Motors
76%
Draw or Jeonbuk Motors
72%

Winning margin

Sydney FC wins by 2+
11%
Jeonbuk Motors wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Sydney FC 1+ goals
71%
Sydney FC 2+ goals
35%
Sydney FC 3+ goals
13%
Jeonbuk Motors 1+ goals
82%
Jeonbuk Motors 2+ goals
51%
Jeonbuk Motors 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Sydney FC (draw refunded)
36%
Jeonbuk Motors (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sydney FC at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

Jeonbuk Motors away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.32 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sydney FC attack 1.15 + Jeonbuk Motors defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.23

Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.77 + Sydney FC defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sydney FC scores more
28%
level
24%
Jeonbuk Motors scores more
48%

Jeonbuk Motors at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Jeonbuk Motors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sydney FC vs Jeonbuk Motors

Sydney FC and Jeonbuk Motors drew 2-2 in AFC Champions League on March 4, 2020.

The match was played at Netstrata Jubilee Stadium in Sydney.