Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Swansea vs Burnley — Championship 2018

Swansea
Swansea
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Burnley
Burnley
J. Anthony 22'
J. Brownhill 4'
3/15/2025ChampionshipChampionship · Round 38Swansea.com Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Swansea31%
×Draw28%
Burnley41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Swansea
1.06
Burnley
1.25

Burnley creates 18% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 19 away

creates per match

Swansea
1.27
Burnley
1.28

allows per match

Swansea
1.21
Burnley
0.86

finishing

Swansea+0.04on par
Burnley+0.35scores more

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swansea ↓

Burnley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Swansea or draw
59%
Swansea or Burnley
72%
Draw or Burnley
69%

Winning margin

Swansea wins by 2+
12%
Burnley wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Swansea 1+ goals
65%
Swansea 2+ goals
29%
Swansea 3+ goals
9%
Burnley 1+ goals
71%
Burnley 2+ goals
36%
Burnley 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Swansea (draw refunded)
44%
Burnley (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swansea at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.21 · 61 matches

Burnley away — creates 1.28, concedes 0.86 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swansea attack 1.27 + Burnley defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.06

Burnley attack 1.28 + Swansea defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Swansea scores more
31%
level
28%
Burnley scores more
41%

Burnley at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Burnley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
J. BrownhillBurnleyBurnley · F
8.3

Match Events

4'
J. Brownhill↳ Z. Flemming
22'
J. Anthony
57'
J. Fulton← Gonçalo Franco
57'
O. Cooper← Eom Ji-Sung
70'
L. Foster← Z. Flemming
70'
H. Mejbri← M. Edwards
73'
J. Allen← L. OBrien
73'
S. Parker← Ronald
74'
Jay Fulton
77'
C. Christie← K. Naughton
89'
A. Barnes← J. Anthony

Possession

56%Swansea

Shots

5Swansea

Pass accuracy

49%Swansea

Statistics

SwanseaBurnley
Overview
56%Possession44%
5Total Shots12
0.44Expected Goals (xG)1.90
4Corners4
12Fouls12
Shots
5Total Shots12
1On Target5
2Off Target3
2Blocked4
5Inside Box11
0Outside Box1
Passing
56%Possession44%
489Total Passes392
366Accurate Passes300
75%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
0.14Goals Prevented0.14
Discipline
12Fouls12
1Yellow Cards0
2Offsides3

Match Recap: Swansea vs Burnley

Burnley beat Swansea 2-0 in Championship on March 15, 2025.

Goals: J. Brownhill (4'), J. Anthony (22').

Swansea controlled possession (56%) and registered 5 shots to 12.

The match was played at Swansea.com Stadium in Swansea.