Burnley 1–0 Swansea: Result & Stats | Championship

Burnley

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Swansea

J. Rodríguez 90+4' (pen)

11/10/2024

Championship · Round 15Turf Moor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Burnley49%

×Draw27%

Swansea24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BurnleyExpected goals in this matchSwansea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.89

Burnley

1.42

Swansea

0.89

Burnley creates 60% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 56 away

1.35

creates per match

1.09

0.68

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Burnley

1.35

Swansea

1.09

allows per match

Burnley

0.68

Swansea

1.49

+0.23scores more than expected

finishing

-0.04on par

finishing

Burnley+0.23scores more

Swansea-0.04on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley ↓

Swansea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Burnley or draw

76%

Burnley or Swansea

73%

Draw or Swansea

51%

Winning margin

Burnley wins by 2+

24%

Swansea wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Burnley 1+ goals

76%

Burnley 2+ goals

41%

Burnley 3+ goals

17%

Swansea 1+ goals

59%

Swansea 2+ goals

22%

Swansea 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Burnley (draw refunded)

68%

Swansea (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.68 · 19 matches

Swansea away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.49 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley attack 1.35 + Swansea defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.42

Swansea attack 1.09 + Burnley defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Burnley scores more

49%

level

27%

Swansea scores more

24%

Burnley at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Burnley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

L. Vigouroux

Swansea · G

8.2

Match Events

32'

Josh Cullen

61'

Ronald

62'

L. Cullen← J. Allen

62'

F. Bianchini← Ž. Vipotnik

68'

B. Humphreys← Lucas Pires

69'

E. Agyei← L. Koleosho

77'

K. Naughton← M. Peart-Harris

78'

H. Mejbri← J. Sarmiento

78'

J. Rodríguez← Z. Flemming

78'

J. Laurent← J. Cullen

85'

C. Christie← Ronald

86'

Liam Cullen

90+5'

Ben Cabango

90+4'

J. RodríguezPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BurnleySwansea

Overview

52%Possession48%

20Total Shots9

1.85Expected Goals (xG)0.64

5Corners1

13Fouls12

Shots

20Total Shots9

7On Target4

8Off Target5

5Blocked0

11Inside Box5

9Outside Box4

Passing

52%Possession48%

471Total Passes440

389Accurate Passes358

83%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

0.45Goals Prevented0.45

Discipline

13Fouls12

1Yellow Cards3

3Offsides7