Swansea 1–2 Burnley: Result & Stats | Championship

Swansea

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Burnley

O. Cooper 27'

I. Maatsen 22', 13'

1/2/2023

Championship · Round 26Swansea.com Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Swansea31%

×Draw28%

Burnley41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SwanseaExpected goals in this matchBurnley

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.25

Swansea

1.06

Burnley

1.25

Burnley creates 18% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 19 away

1.27

creates per match

1.28

1.21

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Swansea

1.27

Burnley

1.28

allows per match

Swansea

1.21

Burnley

0.86

+0.04on par

finishing

+0.35scores more than expected

finishing

Swansea+0.04on par

Burnley+0.35scores more

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swansea ↓

Burnley →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Swansea or draw

59%

Swansea or Burnley

72%

Draw or Burnley

69%

Winning margin

Swansea wins by 2+

12%

Burnley wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Swansea 1+ goals

65%

Swansea 2+ goals

29%

Swansea 3+ goals

9%

Burnley 1+ goals

71%

Burnley 2+ goals

36%

Burnley 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Swansea (draw refunded)

44%

Burnley (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swansea at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.21 · 61 matches

Burnley away — creates 1.28, concedes 0.86 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swansea attack 1.27 + Burnley defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.06

Burnley attack 1.28 + Swansea defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Swansea scores more

31%

level

28%

Burnley scores more

41%

Burnley at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Burnley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

I. Maatsen

Burnley · D

8.7

Match Events

12'

13'

22'

27'

41'

45+2'

54'

J. Guðmundsson← A. Zaroury

58'

58'

59'

70'

77'

C. Congreve← L. Cullen

79'

Joel Latibeaudiere

79'

Jóhann Guðmundsson

85'

M. Sorinola← O. Cooper

88'

A. Barnes← J. Rodríguez

90+5'

Ashley Barnes

90+5'

Manuel Benson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SwanseaBurnley

Overview

56%Possession44%

10Total Shots8

4Corners5

7Fouls12

Shots

10Total Shots8

3On Target3

3Off Target4

4Blocked1

7Inside Box4

3Outside Box4

Passing

56%Possession44%

546Total Passes444

471Accurate Passes372

86%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

7Fouls12

3Yellow Cards5

0Offsides1