Swansea 1–0 Burnley: Result & Stats

Swansea

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Burnley

2/10/2018

Premier League · Round 27Liberty Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Swansea44%

×Draw26%

Burnley30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SwanseaExpected goals in this matchBurnley

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.17

Swansea

1.48

Burnley

1.17

Swansea creates 26% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 156 away

1.27

creates per match

0.96

1.38

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Swansea

1.27

Burnley

0.96

allows per match

Swansea

1.38

Burnley

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Swansea+0.00on par

Burnley+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swansea ↓

Burnley →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Swansea or draw

70%

Swansea or Burnley

74%

Draw or Burnley

56%

Winning margin

Swansea wins by 2+

22%

Burnley wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Swansea 1+ goals

77%

Swansea 2+ goals

43%

Swansea 3+ goals

19%

Burnley 1+ goals

69%

Burnley 2+ goals

33%

Burnley 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Swansea (draw refunded)

60%

Burnley (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swansea at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.38 · 74 matches

Burnley away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.69 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swansea attack 1.27 + Burnley defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.48

Burnley attack 0.96 + Swansea defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Swansea scores more

44%

level

26%

Burnley scores more

30%

Swansea at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Swansea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff