SV Wehen 0–1 Hansa Rostock: Result & Stats

SV Wehen

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Hansa Rostock

K. Fatkic 4' (pen)

3/20/2026

League #80 · Round 30BRITA-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

SV Wehen39%

×Draw31%

Hansa Rostock30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SV WehenExpected goals in this matchHansa Rostock

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

0.91

SV Wehen

1.09

Hansa Rostock

0.91

SV Wehen creates 20% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 44 away

1.07

creates per match

1.11

0.71

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

SV Wehen

1.07

Hansa Rostock

1.11

allows per match

SV Wehen

0.71

Hansa Rostock

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SV Wehen+0.00on par

Hansa Rostock+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Wehen ↓

Hansa Rostock →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

SV Wehen or draw

70%

SV Wehen or Hansa Rostock

69%

Draw or Hansa Rostock

61%

Winning margin

SV Wehen wins by 2+

16%

Hansa Rostock wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

SV Wehen 1+ goals

66%

SV Wehen 2+ goals

30%

SV Wehen 3+ goals

10%

Hansa Rostock 1+ goals

60%

Hansa Rostock 2+ goals

23%

Hansa Rostock 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

SV Wehen (draw refunded)

57%

Hansa Rostock (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Wehen at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

Hansa Rostock away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.11 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Wehen attack 1.07 + Hansa Rostock defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.09

Hansa Rostock attack 1.11 + SV Wehen defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

SV Wehen scores more

39%

level

31%

Hansa Rostock scores more

30%

SV Wehen at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "SV Wehen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

B. Uphoff

Hansa Rostock · G

8.0

Match Events

4'

Kenan Fatkič

4'

K. FatkicPenalty

30'

Robin Kalem

60'

L. Kunze← J. Mejdr

60'

A. Voglsammer← M. Krauss

61'

R. Johansson← R. Kalem

61'

N. May← F. Greilinger

65'

Florian-Horst Carstens

67'

L. Wallner← A. Lebeau

73'

N. Agrafiotis← G. Fechner

74'

L. Schleimer← F. Hubner

84'

B. Nink← S. Mockenhaupt

88'

F. Ruschke← V. Bergh

89'

Benno Dietze

90+4'

Jordy Gillekens

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SVHansa

Overview

52%Possession48%

23Total Shots4

1.97Expected Goals (xG)1.15

7Corners3

11Fouls10

Shots

23Total Shots4

3On Target1

8Off Target1

10Blocked2

12Inside Box3

11Outside Box1

Passing

52%Possession48%

388Total Passes303

313Accurate Passes242

81%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls10

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

1Offsides3