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SV Wehen vs Hansa Rostock — League #80 2026

SV Wehen
SV Wehen
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Hansa Rostock
Hansa Rostock
M. Flotho 31'
8/10/2024League #80League #80 · Round 2BRITA-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

SV Wehen39%
×Draw31%
Hansa Rostock30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SV Wehen
1.09
Hansa Rostock
0.91

SV Wehen creates 20% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 44 away

creates per match

SV Wehen
1.07
Hansa Rostock
1.11

allows per match

SV Wehen
0.71
Hansa Rostock
1.11

finishing

SV Wehen+0.00on par
Hansa Rostock+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Wehen ↓

Hansa Rostock →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

SV Wehen or draw
70%
SV Wehen or Hansa Rostock
69%
Draw or Hansa Rostock
61%

Winning margin

SV Wehen wins by 2+
16%
Hansa Rostock wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

SV Wehen 1+ goals
66%
SV Wehen 2+ goals
30%
SV Wehen 3+ goals
10%
Hansa Rostock 1+ goals
60%
Hansa Rostock 2+ goals
23%
Hansa Rostock 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

SV Wehen (draw refunded)
57%
Hansa Rostock (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Wehen at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

Hansa Rostock away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.11 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Wehen attack 1.07 + Hansa Rostock defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.09

Hansa Rostock attack 1.11 + SV Wehen defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

SV Wehen scores more
39%
level
31%
Hansa Rostock scores more
30%

SV Wehen at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "SV Wehen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
N. BätznerSV WehenSV Wehen · M
7.3

Match Events

31'
M. Flotho↳ N. Bätzner
51'
Ivan Franjić
61'
N. Agrafiotis← M. Flotho
62'
S. Guðjohnsen← T. Krohn
62'
C. Harenbrock← F. Pfanne
70'
L. Köster← N. Fröling
71'
Nikolas Agrafiotis
72'
O. Wohlers← I. Franjić
72'
B. Nink← T. Goppel
73'
O. Kiomourtzoglou← T. Gözüsirin
79'
B. Dietze← A. Lebeau
79'
C. Kinsombi← A. Gürleyen
80'
J. Janitzek← F. Luckeneder

Possession

46%SV

Shots

8SV

Pass accuracy

50%SV

Statistics

SVHansa
Overview
46%Possession54%
8Total Shots8
1.33Expected Goals (xG)1.08
3Corners2
9Fouls15
Shots
8Total Shots8
2On Target3
3Off Target2
3Blocked2
7Inside Box4
1Outside Box4
Passing
46%Possession54%
383Total Passes455
295Accurate Passes353
77%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
9Fouls15
2Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards0
2Offsides4

Match Recap: SV Wehen vs Hansa Rostock

SV Wehen beat Hansa Rostock 1-0 in League #80 on August 10, 2024.

Goals: M. Flotho (31').

Hansa Rostock controlled possession (54%) and registered 8 shots to 8.

The match was played at BRITA-Arena in Wiesbaden.