Hansa Rostock 3–1 SV Wehen: Result & Stats

Hansa Rostock

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

SV Wehen

S. Ingelsson 90+4'

K. Pröger 72'

D. Roßbach 51'

I. Prtajin 78'

4/5/2024

2. Bundesliga · Round 28Ostseestadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Hansa Rostock35%

×Draw26%

SV Wehen40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hansa RostockExpected goals in this matchSV Wehen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.42

Hansa Rostock

1.31

SV Wehen

1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 54 home / 35 away

1.07

creates per match

1.34

1.50

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Hansa Rostock

1.07

SV Wehen

1.34

allows per match

Hansa Rostock

1.50

SV Wehen

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hansa Rostock+0.00on par

SV Wehen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hansa Rostock ↓

SV Wehen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Hansa Rostock or draw

60%

Hansa Rostock or SV Wehen

74%

Draw or SV Wehen

65%

Winning margin

Hansa Rostock wins by 2+

15%

SV Wehen wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Hansa Rostock 1+ goals

73%

Hansa Rostock 2+ goals

38%

Hansa Rostock 3+ goals

14%

SV Wehen 1+ goals

76%

SV Wehen 2+ goals

41%

SV Wehen 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Hansa Rostock (draw refunded)

47%

SV Wehen (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hansa Rostock at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.50 · 54 matches

SV Wehen away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.54 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hansa Rostock attack 1.07 + SV Wehen defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.31

SV Wehen attack 1.34 + Hansa Rostock defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hansa Rostock scores more

35%

level

26%

SV Wehen scores more

40%

SV Wehen at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "SV Wehen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

S. Ingelsson

Hansa Rostock · F

8.6

Match Events

45'

51'

52'

58'

63'

J. Iredale← Lee Hyun-Ju

63'

T. Goppel← N. Bätzner

72'

K. Pröger↳ S. Ingelsson

74'

K. Bennetts← L. Günther

76'

J. van der Werff← S. Rhein

76'

S. Vasiliadis← K. Stafylidis

78'

I. Prtajin

81'

J. Perea← Júnior Brumado

81'

F. Carstens← S. Mockenhaupt

85'

Keanan Bennetts

88'

J. Strauß← K. Schumacher

88'

J. Bachmann← K. Pröger

90+4'

S. Ingelsson↳ J. Perea

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HansaSV

Overview

55%Possession45%

18Total Shots10

5Corners5

12Fouls15

Shots

18Total Shots10

4On Target6

8Off Target2

6Blocked2

11Inside Box6

7Outside Box4

Passing

55%Possession45%

428Total Passes361

332Accurate Passes269

78%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls15

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

6Offsides2

2. Bundesliga: Hansa Rostock 3–1 SV Wehen

Hansa Rostock beat SV Wehen 3-1 in 2. Bundesliga on April 5, 2024.

Goals: D. Roßbach (51'), K. Pröger (72'), I. Prtajin (78'), S. Ingelsson (90+4').

Hansa Rostock controlled possession (55%) and registered 18 shots to 10.

The match was played at Ostseestadion in Rostock.

Hansa Rostock vs SV Wehen — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

2. Bundesliga: Hansa Rostock 3–1 SV Wehen