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Hansa Rostock vs SV Wehen — League #80 2026

Hansa Rostock
Hansa Rostock
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
SV Wehen
SV Wehen
J. Lewald 65' (OG)
J. Mejdr 56'
R. Naderi 12'
10/18/2025League #80League #80 · Round 11Ostseestadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Hansa Rostock47%
×Draw25%
SV Wehen28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hansa Rostock
1.63
SV Wehen
1.20

Hansa Rostock creates 36% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 12 away

creates per match

Hansa Rostock
1.68
SV Wehen
1.33

allows per match

Hansa Rostock
1.07
SV Wehen
1.58

finishing

Hansa Rostock+0.00on par
SV Wehen+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hansa Rostock ↓

SV Wehen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Hansa Rostock or draw
72%
Hansa Rostock or SV Wehen
75%
Draw or SV Wehen
53%

Winning margin

Hansa Rostock wins by 2+
25%
SV Wehen wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Hansa Rostock 1+ goals
80%
Hansa Rostock 2+ goals
48%
Hansa Rostock 3+ goals
22%
SV Wehen 1+ goals
70%
SV Wehen 2+ goals
34%
SV Wehen 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Hansa Rostock (draw refunded)
63%
SV Wehen (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hansa Rostock at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.07 · 44 matches

SV Wehen away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.58 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hansa Rostock attack 1.68 + SV Wehen defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.63

SV Wehen attack 1.33 + Hansa Rostock defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Hansa Rostock scores more
47%
level
25%
SV Wehen scores more
28%

Hansa Rostock at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Hansa Rostock will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
B. UphoffHansa RostockHansa Rostock · G
8.3

Match Events

10'
Fatih Kaya
12'
R. Naderi
21'
Ryan Johansson
42'
Ahmet Gürleyen
45'
Justin Janitzek
56'
Jan Mejdr
56'
J. Mejdr↳ K. Fatkic
61'
J. Lewald← J. Janitzek
65'
J. LewaldOwn goal
71'
P. Stock← J. Dirkner
71'
E. Holten← A. Voglsammer
74'
D. Bogicevic← L. Schleimer
74'
J. Becker← N. Agrafiotis
77'
Tarık Gözüşirin
81'
N. Neidhart← J. Mejdr
81'
T. Krohn← R. Naderi
84'
S. Mockenhaupt← O. Wohlers
84'
G. Fechner← T. Gozusirin
85'
F. Pfanne← C. Harenbrock

Possession

49%Hansa

Shots

19Hansa

Pass accuracy

49%Hansa

Statistics

HansaSV
Overview
49%Possession51%
19Total Shots7
2.55Expected Goals (xG)1.60
9Corners4
16Fouls10
Shots
19Total Shots7
8On Target4
4Off Target2
5Blocked0
13Inside Box6
6Outside Box1
Passing
49%Possession51%
467Total Passes381
380Accurate Passes319
81%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
4Saves7
Discipline
16Fouls10
2Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards0
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Hansa Rostock vs SV Wehen

Hansa Rostock beat SV Wehen 3-0 in League #80 on October 18, 2025.

Goals: R. Naderi (12'), J. Mejdr (56'), J. Lewald (65' o.g.).

SV Wehen controlled possession (51%) and registered 7 shots to 19.

The match was played at Ostseestadion in Rostock.