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SV Wehen vs Hansa Rostock — 2. Bundesliga 2018

SV Wehen
SV Wehen
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hansa Rostock
Hansa Rostock
I. Prtajin 89'
10/29/20232. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 11BRITA-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

SV Wehen39%
×Draw25%
Hansa Rostock36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SV Wehen
1.44
Hansa Rostock
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 54 away

creates per match

SV Wehen
1.23
Hansa Rostock
0.94

allows per match

SV Wehen
1.83
Hansa Rostock
1.65

finishing

SV Wehen+0.00on par
Hansa Rostock+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Wehen ↓

Hansa Rostock →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

SV Wehen or draw
64%
SV Wehen or Hansa Rostock
75%
Draw or Hansa Rostock
61%

Winning margin

SV Wehen wins by 2+
18%
Hansa Rostock wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

SV Wehen 1+ goals
76%
SV Wehen 2+ goals
42%
SV Wehen 3+ goals
18%
Hansa Rostock 1+ goals
75%
Hansa Rostock 2+ goals
40%
Hansa Rostock 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

SV Wehen (draw refunded)
52%
Hansa Rostock (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Wehen at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.83 · 35 matches

Hansa Rostock away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.65 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Wehen attack 1.23 + Hansa Rostock defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.44

Hansa Rostock attack 0.94 + SV Wehen defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

SV Wehen scores more
39%
level
25%
Hansa Rostock scores more
36%

SV Wehen at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "SV Wehen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
R. HeußerSV WehenSV Wehen · M
8.2

Match Events

30'
Florian Stritzel
31'
Juan José PereaPenalty confirmed
65'
I. Prtajin← J. Iredale
72'
Júnior Brumado← N. Fröling
72'
K. Pröger← J. Perea
78'
K. Froese← N. Bätzner
78'
S. Mockenhaupt← T. Goppel
78'
L. Günther← A. Ćatić
85'
J. Bachmann← S. Ingelsson
89'
I. Prtajin
90'
B. Jacobsen← R. Heußer
90+1'
S. Güler← C. Kinsombi
90+1'
L. Hinterseer← K. Schumacher

Possession

60%SV

Shots

18SV

Pass accuracy

53%SV

Statistics

SVHansa
Overview
60%Possession40%
18Total Shots16
9Corners11
7Fouls9
Shots
18Total Shots16
6On Target4
7Off Target8
5Blocked4
10Inside Box6
8Outside Box10
Passing
60%Possession40%
494Total Passes314
403Accurate Passes232
82%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
4Saves5
Discipline
7Fouls9
1Yellow Cards0

2. Bundesliga: SV Wehen 1–0 Hansa Rostock

SV Wehen beat Hansa Rostock 1-0 in 2. Bundesliga on October 29, 2023.

Goals: I. Prtajin (89').

SV Wehen controlled possession (60%) and registered 18 shots to 16.

The match was played at BRITA-Arena in Wiesbaden.