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SV Wehen vs FC St. Pauli — 2. Bundesliga 2018

SV Wehen
SV Wehen
FT
5 – 3
HT: 3 – 2
FC St. Pauli
FC St. Pauli
P. Tietz 66', 61' (pen), 12'
S. Aigner 38', 11'
H. Veerman 73', 32'
L. Oestigaard 25'
6/28/20202. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 34BRITA-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

SV Wehen35%
×Draw24%
FC St. Pauli41%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SV Wehen
1.45
FC St. Pauli
1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 36 home / 103 away

creates per match

SV Wehen
1.19
FC St. Pauli
1.36

allows per match

SV Wehen
1.81
FC St. Pauli
1.71

finishing

SV Wehen+0.00on par
FC St. Pauli+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Wehen ↓

FC St. Pauli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

SV Wehen or draw
59%
SV Wehen or FC St. Pauli
76%
Draw or FC St. Pauli
65%

Winning margin

SV Wehen wins by 2+
16%
FC St. Pauli wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

SV Wehen 1+ goals
77%
SV Wehen 2+ goals
42%
SV Wehen 3+ goals
18%
FC St. Pauli 1+ goals
79%
FC St. Pauli 2+ goals
47%
FC St. Pauli 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

SV Wehen (draw refunded)
46%
FC St. Pauli (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Wehen at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.81 · 36 matches

FC St. Pauli away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.71 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Wehen attack 1.19 + FC St. Pauli defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.45

FC St. Pauli attack 1.36 + SV Wehen defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

SV Wehen scores more
35%
level
24%
FC St. Pauli scores more
41%

FC St. Pauli at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FC St. Pauli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32
S. AignerSV WehenSV Wehen · M
9.7

Match Events

11'
S. Aigner↳ D. Kyereh
12'
P. Tietz↳ S. Aigner
25'
L. Oestigaard↳ L. Zander
32'
H. Veerman↳ M. Franzke
38'
S. Aigner
56'
K. Lankford← L. Coordes
61'
R. Benatelli← C. Viet
61'
P. TietzPenalty
66'
P. Tietz↳ M. Kuhn
69'
F. O. Becker
72'
T. Knöll← M. Guthörl
72'
M. Ajani← M. Kuhn
72'
J. Lawrence← M. Franzke
73'
J. Flum← F. Becker
73'
M. Penney← S. Ohlsson
73'
H. Veerman↳ V. Gyökeres
82'
P. Schönfeld← S. Aigner
83'
M. Niemeyer← D. Franke
87'
M. Dittgen← D. Kyereh

Possession

63%SV

Shots

22SV

Pass accuracy

53%SV

Statistics

SVFC
Overview
63%Possession37%
22Total Shots12
5Corners4
12Fouls8
Shots
22Total Shots12
8On Target5
9Off Target6
5Blocked1
13Inside Box8
9Outside Box4
Passing
63%Possession37%
609Total Passes348
523Accurate Passes260
86%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
12Fouls8
0Yellow Cards1
1Offsides0

2. Bundesliga: SV Wehen 5–3 FC St. Pauli

SV Wehen beat FC St. Pauli 5-3 in 2. Bundesliga on June 28, 2020.

Goals: S. Aigner (11', 38'), P. Tietz (12', 61' pen, 66'), L. Oestigaard (25'), H. Veerman (32', 73').

SV Wehen controlled possession (63%) and registered 22 shots to 12.

The match was played at BRITA-Arena in Wiesbaden.