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FC St. Pauli vs SV Wehen — 2. Bundesliga 2018

FC St. Pauli
FC St. Pauli
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
SV Wehen
SV Wehen
V. Gyökeres 90+1', 22'
H. Veerman 86'
M. Schäffler 70'
12/14/20192. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 17Millerntor-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

FC St. Pauli48%
×Draw25%
SV Wehen27%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC St. Pauli
1.61
SV Wehen
1.15

FC St. Pauli creates 40% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 36 away

creates per match

FC St. Pauli
1.70
SV Wehen
1.31

allows per match

FC St. Pauli
0.99
SV Wehen
1.53

finishing

FC St. Pauli+0.00on par
SV Wehen+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC St. Pauli ↓

SV Wehen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

FC St. Pauli or draw
73%
FC St. Pauli or SV Wehen
75%
Draw or SV Wehen
52%

Winning margin

FC St. Pauli wins by 2+
25%
SV Wehen wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

FC St. Pauli 1+ goals
80%
FC St. Pauli 2+ goals
48%
FC St. Pauli 3+ goals
22%
SV Wehen 1+ goals
68%
SV Wehen 2+ goals
32%
SV Wehen 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

FC St. Pauli (draw refunded)
64%
SV Wehen (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC St. Pauli at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.99 · 100 matches

SV Wehen away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.53 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC St. Pauli attack 1.70 + SV Wehen defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.61

SV Wehen attack 1.31 + FC St. Pauli defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

FC St. Pauli scores more
48%
level
25%
SV Wehen scores more
27%

FC St. Pauli at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "FC St. Pauli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
V. GyökeresFC St. PauliFC St. Pauli · M
8.4

Match Events

22'
V. Gyökeres
38'
Marcel Titsch-Rivero
48'
Manuel Schäffler
60'
M. Kuyucu← S. Ohlsson
61'
R. Benatelli← C. Buchtmann
62'
T. Knöll← M. Titsch-Rivero
70'
N. Shipnoski← S. Aigner
70'
M. Schäffler
75'
K. Lankford← R. Miyaichi
86'
H. Veerman↳ V. Gyökeres
88'
B. Röcker← S. Mrowca
89'
Mert Kuyucu
90+1'
V. Gyökeres↳ K. Lankford

Possession

59%FC

Shots

12FC

Pass accuracy

54%FC

Statistics

FCSV
Overview
59%Possession41%
12Total Shots6
3Corners4
5Fouls12
Shots
12Total Shots6
6On Target3
4Off Target1
2Blocked2
9Inside Box3
3Outside Box3
Passing
59%Possession41%
557Total Passes366
460Accurate Passes262
83%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
5Fouls12
1Yellow Cards2
1Offsides1

2. Bundesliga: FC St. Pauli 3–1 SV Wehen

FC St. Pauli beat SV Wehen 3-1 in 2. Bundesliga on December 14, 2019.

Goals: V. Gyökeres (22', 90+1'), M. Schäffler (70'), H. Veerman (86').

FC St. Pauli controlled possession (59%) and registered 12 shots to 6.

The match was played at Millerntor-Stadion in Hamburg.