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SV Wehen vs FC St. Pauli — DFB Pokal 2018

SV Wehen
SV Wehen
AET
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
FC St. Pauli
FC St. Pauli
N. Schmidt 105+1'
M. Schäffler 103' (pen)
S. Reddemann 35'
C. Avevor 109'
R. Neudecker 51'
8/17/2018DFB PokalDFB Pokal · 1st RoundBrita Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

SV Wehen25%
×Draw19%
FC St. Pauli56%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SV Wehen
1.61
FC St. Pauli
2.48

FC St. Pauli creates 54% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

creates per match

SV Wehen
1.00
FC St. Pauli
2.56

allows per match

SV Wehen
2.40
FC St. Pauli
2.22

finishing

SV Wehen+0.00on par
FC St. Pauli+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Wehen ↓

FC St. Pauli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

SV Wehen or draw
44%
SV Wehen or FC St. Pauli
81%
Draw or FC St. Pauli
75%

Winning margin

SV Wehen wins by 2+
11%
FC St. Pauli wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

SV Wehen 1+ goals
80%
SV Wehen 2+ goals
48%
SV Wehen 3+ goals
22%
FC St. Pauli 1+ goals
92%
FC St. Pauli 2+ goals
70%
FC St. Pauli 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

SV Wehen (draw refunded)
30%
FC St. Pauli (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Wehen at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

FC St. Pauli away — creates 2.56, concedes 2.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Wehen attack 1.00 + FC St. Pauli defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.61

FC St. Pauli attack 2.56 + SV Wehen defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

SV Wehen scores more
25%
level
19%
FC St. Pauli scores more
56%

FC St. Pauli at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "FC St. Pauli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
N. SchmidtSV WehenSV Wehen · M
8.3

Match Events

35'
S. Reddemann↳ S. Mockenhaupt
43'
Nicklas Shipnoski
46'
H. Veerman← S. Allagui
51'
R. Neudecker
58'
Stephan Andrist
69'
D. Kyereh← N. Shipnoski
70'
N. Schmidt← P. Schönfeld
75'
C. Şahin← W. Sobota
79'
B. Nehrig← J. Flum
88'
Sebastian Mrowca
90'
Daniel Buballa
94'
Marvin Knoll
98'
D. Diamantakos← M. Dæhli
100'
A. Mintzel← M. Wachs
102'
Philipp Ziereis
103'
M. SchäfflerPenalty
105+1'
N. Schmidt↳ S. Brandstetter
109'
G. Modica← S. Brandstetter
109'
C. Avevor
115'
Dimitrios Diamantakos

Possession

38%SV

Shots

19SV

Pass accuracy

46%SV

Statistics

SVFC
Overview
38%Possession62%
19Total Shots26
4Corners16
18Fouls14
Shots
19Total Shots26
8On Target10
7Off Target12
4Blocked4
13Inside Box17
6Outside Box9
Passing
38%Possession62%
408Total Passes636
255Accurate Passes471
63%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
8Saves5
Discipline
18Fouls14
3Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards0
5Offsides5

DFB Pokal: SV Wehen 1–1 FC St. Pauli

SV Wehen and FC St. Pauli drew 1-1 in DFB Pokal on August 17, 2018.

Goals: S. Reddemann (35'), R. Neudecker (51'), M. Schäffler (103' pen), N. Schmidt (105+1'), C. Avevor (109').

FC St. Pauli controlled possession (62%) and registered 26 shots to 19.

The match was played at Brita Arena in Wiesbaden.