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FC St. Pauli vs SV Wehen — 2. Bundesliga 2018

FC St. Pauli
FC St. Pauli
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
SV Wehen
SV Wehen
M. Hartel 47'
J. Iredale 84'
12/17/20232. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 17Millerntor-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

FC St. Pauli48%
×Draw25%
SV Wehen27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC St. Pauli
1.63
SV Wehen
1.17

FC St. Pauli creates 39% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 36 away

creates per match

FC St. Pauli
1.73
SV Wehen
1.31

allows per match

FC St. Pauli
1.03
SV Wehen
1.53

finishing

FC St. Pauli+0.00on par
SV Wehen+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC St. Pauli ↓

SV Wehen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

FC St. Pauli or draw
73%
FC St. Pauli or SV Wehen
75%
Draw or SV Wehen
52%

Winning margin

FC St. Pauli wins by 2+
25%
SV Wehen wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

FC St. Pauli 1+ goals
80%
FC St. Pauli 2+ goals
48%
FC St. Pauli 3+ goals
22%
SV Wehen 1+ goals
69%
SV Wehen 2+ goals
33%
SV Wehen 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

FC St. Pauli (draw refunded)
64%
SV Wehen (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC St. Pauli at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.03 · 102 matches

SV Wehen away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.53 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC St. Pauli attack 1.73 + SV Wehen defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.63

SV Wehen attack 1.31 + FC St. Pauli defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

FC St. Pauli scores more
48%
level
25%
SV Wehen scores more
27%

FC St. Pauli at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "FC St. Pauli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
F. CarstensSV WehenSV Wehen · D
8.5

Match Events

20'
Martin Angha
32'
Nick Batzner
47'
M. Hartel↳ J. Eggestein
51'
Manolis Saliakas
57'
Florian-Horst Carstens
59'
J. Iredale← N. Bätzner
74'
S. Mockenhaupt← T. Goppel
74'
K. Froese← J. Kade
74'
G. Fechner← R. Heußer
76'
Maurides← J. Eggestein
83'
N. Rieble← A. Ćatić
84'
J. Iredale↳ F. Carstens
85'
C. Metcalfe← O. Afolayan
88'
Elias Saad
90+1'
C. Boukhalfa← M. Saliakas

Possession

71%FC

Shots

26FC

Pass accuracy

56%FC

Statistics

FCSV
Overview
71%Possession29%
26Total Shots5
12Corners2
8Fouls9
Shots
26Total Shots5
5On Target1
13Off Target4
8Blocked0
15Inside Box3
11Outside Box2
Passing
71%Possession29%
699Total Passes288
600Accurate Passes192
86%Pass Accuracy67%
Goalkeeping
0Saves4
Discipline
8Fouls9
2Yellow Cards3
2Offsides2

2. Bundesliga: FC St. Pauli 1–1 SV Wehen

FC St. Pauli and SV Wehen drew 1-1 in 2. Bundesliga on December 17, 2023.

Goals: M. Hartel (47'), J. Iredale (84').

FC St. Pauli controlled possession (71%) and registered 26 shots to 5.

The match was played at Millerntor-Stadion in Hamburg.