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SV Elversberg vs SSV Ulm 1846 — 2. Bundesliga 2018

SV Elversberg
SV Elversberg
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
SSV Ulm 1846
SSV Ulm 1846
L. Schnellbacher 62'
P. Strompf 77'
F. Higl 60'
J. Reichert 28' (pen)
9/22/20242. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 6URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

SV Elversberg52%
×Draw24%
SSV Ulm 184624%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SV Elversberg
1.71
SSV Ulm 1846
1.09

SV Elversberg creates 57% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

creates per match

SV Elversberg
1.90
SSV Ulm 1846
0.88

allows per match

SV Elversberg
1.31
SSV Ulm 1846
1.53

finishing

SV Elversberg+0.00on par
SSV Ulm 1846+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Elversberg ↓

SSV Ulm 1846 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

SV Elversberg or draw
76%
SV Elversberg or SSV Ulm 1846
76%
Draw or SSV Ulm 1846
48%

Winning margin

SV Elversberg wins by 2+
28%
SSV Ulm 1846 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

SV Elversberg 1+ goals
82%
SV Elversberg 2+ goals
51%
SV Elversberg 3+ goals
24%
SSV Ulm 1846 1+ goals
66%
SSV Ulm 1846 2+ goals
30%
SSV Ulm 1846 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

SV Elversberg (draw refunded)
68%
SSV Ulm 1846 (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Elversberg at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.31 · 51 matches

SSV Ulm 1846 away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Elversberg attack 1.90 + SSV Ulm 1846 defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.71

SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.88 + SV Elversberg defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

SV Elversberg scores more
52%
level
24%
SSV Ulm 1846 scores more
24%

SV Elversberg at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "SV Elversberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32
P. StrompfSSV Ulm 1846SSV Ulm 1846 · D
8.0

Match Events

10'
Lukas Finn Pinckert
19'
Carlo Sickinger
28'
J. ReichertPenalty
43'
Philipp Strompf
46'
S. Şahin← C. Sickinger
46'
T. Geyer← N. Kolbe
46'
F. Higl← S. Telalović
59'
Semih Şahin
60'
F. Higl
62'
M. Feil← M. Damar
62'
L. Schnellbacher↳ M. Neubauer
63'
F. Schmahl← L. Petkov
63'
F. Gerezgiher← E. Baum
70'
Felix HiglPenalty cancelled
73'
J. Nelson← M. Krattenmacher
73'
P. Maier← M. Brandt
74'
Romario Rösch
77'
P. Strompf↳ D. Chessa
89'
J. Meier← R. Rösch

Possession

62%SV

Shots

20SV

Pass accuracy

52%SV

Statistics

SVSSV
Overview
62%Possession38%
20Total Shots19
9Corners8
9Fouls13
Shots
20Total Shots19
4On Target4
7Off Target10
9Blocked5
14Inside Box8
6Outside Box11
Passing
62%Possession38%
475Total Passes291
387Accurate Passes216
81%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
9Fouls13
3Yellow Cards2
0Offsides1

2. Bundesliga: SV Elversberg 1–3 SSV Ulm 1846

SSV Ulm 1846 beat SV Elversberg 3-1 in 2. Bundesliga on September 22, 2024.

Goals: J. Reichert (28' pen), F. Higl (60'), L. Schnellbacher (62'), P. Strompf (77').

SV Elversberg controlled possession (62%) and registered 20 shots to 19.

The match was played at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde in Spiesen-Elversberg.