SV Elversberg vs SSV ULM 1846 — League #86 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 5+ matches
SV Elversberg27%
SSV ULM 184631%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
SSV ULM 1846 creates 12% more chances
Season form · 5 home / 6 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under88
- Over12
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No79
- Yes21
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
SV Elversberg ↓
Most likely 0–0 (30%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
SV Elversberg at home — creates 0.80, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches
SSV ULM 1846 away — creates 0.67, concedes 0.33 · 6 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
SV Elversberg attack 0.80 + SSV ULM 1846 defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.57
SSV ULM 1846 attack 0.67 + SV Elversberg defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.64
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 31%?"
SSV ULM 1846 at 31% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 31% does not mean "SSV ULM 1846 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
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P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
SV Elversberg host SSV ULM 1846 on Sunday, 12 December 2021 at 13:00. The match is part of the League #86 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: SV Elversberg vs SSV ULM 1846
SV Elversberg beat SSV ULM 1846 1-0 in League #86 on December 12, 2021.
Goals: L. von Piechowski (42').
The match was played at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde in Spiesen-Elversberg.