SSV Ulm 1846 0–1 SV Elversberg: Result & Stats

SSV Ulm 1846

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

SV Elversberg

F. Keidel 73'

8/17/2025

DFB Pokal · 1st RoundDonaustadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

SSV Ulm 184620%

×Draw21%

SV Elversberg59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SSV Ulm 1846Expected goals in this matchSV Elversberg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

2.06

SSV Ulm 1846

1.13

SV Elversberg

2.06

SV Elversberg creates 82% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

0.75

creates per match

2.00

2.13

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

SSV Ulm 1846

0.75

SV Elversberg

2.00

allows per match

SSV Ulm 1846

2.13

SV Elversberg

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SSV Ulm 1846+0.00on par

SV Elversberg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SSV Ulm 1846 ↓

SV Elversberg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–19%

0–29%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

SSV Ulm 1846 or draw

41%

SSV Ulm 1846 or SV Elversberg

79%

Draw or SV Elversberg

80%

Winning margin

SSV Ulm 1846 wins by 2+

8%

SV Elversberg wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

SSV Ulm 1846 1+ goals

68%

SSV Ulm 1846 2+ goals

31%

SSV Ulm 1846 3+ goals

11%

SV Elversberg 1+ goals

87%

SV Elversberg 2+ goals

61%

SV Elversberg 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

SSV Ulm 1846 (draw refunded)

26%

SV Elversberg (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SSV Ulm 1846 at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.13 · 8 matches

SV Elversberg away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.75 + SV Elversberg defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.13

SV Elversberg attack 2.00 + SSV Ulm 1846 defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

SSV Ulm 1846 scores more

20%

level

21%

SV Elversberg scores more

59%

SV Elversberg at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "SV Elversberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

J. Gyamerah

SV Elversberg · D

8.5

Match Events

35'

Amara Condé

46'

C. Sickinger← A. Conde

63'

F. Schmahl← L. Poreba

63'

F. Keidel← L. Gunther

69'

69'

71'

73'

77'

N. H. Castelle← D. Chessa

77'

A. Becker← L. Roser

83'

Lukas Mazagg

84'

L. Schnellbacher← Y. Ebnoutalib

87'

M. Wenig← M. Seegert

90+4'

Jan Boller

90+2'

M. Feil← T. Zimmerschied

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SSVSV

Overview

42%Possession58%

9Total Shots20

3Corners10

13Fouls7

Shots

9Total Shots20

0On Target5

4Off Target11

5Blocked4

6Inside Box13

3Outside Box7

Passing

42%Possession58%

358Total Passes502

268Accurate Passes424

75%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

4Saves0

Discipline

13Fouls7

3Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2