SSV Ulm 1846 0–0 SV Elversberg: Result & Stats

SSV Ulm 1846

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

SV Elversberg

2/22/2025

2. Bundesliga · Round 23Donaustadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

SSV Ulm 184635%

×Draw26%

SV Elversberg40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SSV Ulm 1846Expected goals in this matchSV Elversberg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.43

SSV Ulm 1846

1.32

SV Elversberg

1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 51 away

1.24

creates per match

1.57

1.29

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

SSV Ulm 1846

1.24

SV Elversberg

1.57

allows per match

SSV Ulm 1846

1.29

SV Elversberg

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SSV Ulm 1846+0.00on par

SV Elversberg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SSV Ulm 1846 ↓

SV Elversberg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

SSV Ulm 1846 or draw

60%

SSV Ulm 1846 or SV Elversberg

74%

Draw or SV Elversberg

65%

Winning margin

SSV Ulm 1846 wins by 2+

15%

SV Elversberg wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

SSV Ulm 1846 1+ goals

73%

SSV Ulm 1846 2+ goals

38%

SSV Ulm 1846 3+ goals

15%

SV Elversberg 1+ goals

76%

SV Elversberg 2+ goals

42%

SV Elversberg 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

SSV Ulm 1846 (draw refunded)

47%

SV Elversberg (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SSV Ulm 1846 at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

SV Elversberg away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.41 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SSV Ulm 1846 attack 1.24 + SV Elversberg defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.32

SV Elversberg attack 1.57 + SSV Ulm 1846 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

SSV Ulm 1846 scores more

35%

level

26%

SV Elversberg scores more

40%

SV Elversberg at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "SV Elversberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

J. Reichert

SSV Ulm 1846 · D

8.2

Match Events

35'

Robin Fellhauer

45+1'

Tom Gaal

46'

C. Sickinger← M. Feil

48'

Luka Hyrylainen

59'

F. Higl← S. Telalović

59'

R. Leipertz← A. Keller

63'

Tom GaalGoal cancelled

66'

Johannes Reichert

68'

F. Gerezgiher← T. Zimmerschied

68'

L. Schnellbacher← R. Fellhauer

76'

79'

85'

85'

85'

Y. Ebnoutalib← S. Şahin

88'

L. Röser← O. Batista Meier

88'

L. Stoll← B. Allgeier

90+2'

Frederik Schmahl

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SSVSV

Overview

46%Possession54%

14Total Shots11

5Corners4

13Fouls11

Shots

14Total Shots11

1On Target5

9Off Target1

4Blocked5

10Inside Box4

4Outside Box7

Passing

46%Possession54%

345Total Passes411

252Accurate Passes307

73%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls11

4Yellow Cards3

2Offsides2