SV Darmstadt 98 6–1 FC Ingolstadt 04

SV Darmstadt 98

FT

6 – 1

HT: 4 – 0

FC Ingolstadt 04

B. Manu 90+4'

L. Pfeiffer 66', 39'

P. Tietz 45+4', 29'

F. Schnellhardt 45+2'

S. Kutschke 50'

8/15/2021

2. Bundesliga · Round 3Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

SV Darmstadt 9848%

×Draw25%

FC Ingolstadt 0427%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SV Darmstadt 98Expected goals in this matchFC Ingolstadt 04

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.13

SV Darmstadt 98

1.60

FC Ingolstadt 04

1.13

SV Darmstadt 98 creates 42% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 59 away

1.83

creates per match

1.12

1.14

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

SV Darmstadt 98

1.83

FC Ingolstadt 04

1.12

allows per match

SV Darmstadt 98

1.14

FC Ingolstadt 04

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SV Darmstadt 98+0.00on par

FC Ingolstadt 04+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Darmstadt 98 ↓

FC Ingolstadt 04 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

SV Darmstadt 98 or draw

73%

SV Darmstadt 98 or FC Ingolstadt 04

75%

Draw or FC Ingolstadt 04

52%

Winning margin

SV Darmstadt 98 wins by 2+

25%

FC Ingolstadt 04 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

SV Darmstadt 98 1+ goals

80%

SV Darmstadt 98 2+ goals

47%

SV Darmstadt 98 3+ goals

22%

FC Ingolstadt 04 1+ goals

68%

FC Ingolstadt 04 2+ goals

31%

FC Ingolstadt 04 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

SV Darmstadt 98 (draw refunded)

64%

FC Ingolstadt 04 (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Darmstadt 98 at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.14 · 109 matches

FC Ingolstadt 04 away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.36 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.83 + FC Ingolstadt 04 defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.60

FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 1.12 + SV Darmstadt 98 defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

SV Darmstadt 98 scores more

48%

level

25%

FC Ingolstadt 04 scores more

27%

SV Darmstadt 98 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "SV Darmstadt 98 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

P. Tietz

SV Darmstadt 98 · F

9.3

Match Events

29'

P. Tietz↳ M. Bader

36'

Klaus Gjasula

39'

L. Pfeiffer↳ E. Karic

45+1'

Thomas Keller

45+2'

F. Schnellhardt

45+4'

P. Tietz↳ M. Bader

46'

N. Antonitsch← M. Neuberger

46'

R. Preißinger← M. Stendera

46'

J. Marx← D. Franke

46'

N. Boujellab← F. Bilbija

50'

S. Kutschke↳ D. Eckert

51'

Rico Preißinger

66'

L. Pfeiffer↳ K. Gjasula

72'

Matthias Bader

73'

J. Müller← K. Gjasula

73'

B. Manu← L. Pfeiffer

78'

F. Kaya← S. Kutschke

81'

N. Celic← F. Schnellhardt

87'

88'

88'

90+4'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SVFC

Overview

61%Possession39%

19Total Shots4

5Corners1

10Fouls16

Shots

19Total Shots4

9On Target3

8Off Target0

2Blocked1

5Inside Box3

14Outside Box1

Passing

61%Possession39%

477Total Passes313

402Accurate Passes237

84%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls16

2Yellow Cards3

0Offsides4