SV Darmstadt 98 1–1 FC Ingolstadt 04

SV Darmstadt 98

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

FC Ingolstadt 04

T. Kempe 83' (pen)

D. Lezcano 2' (pen)

12/8/2018

2. Bundesliga · Round 16Stadion am Böllenfalltor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

SV Darmstadt 9848%

×Draw25%

FC Ingolstadt 0427%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SV Darmstadt 98Expected goals in this matchFC Ingolstadt 04

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.13

SV Darmstadt 98

1.60

FC Ingolstadt 04

1.13

SV Darmstadt 98 creates 42% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 59 away

1.83

creates per match

1.12

1.14

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

SV Darmstadt 98

1.83

FC Ingolstadt 04

1.12

allows per match

SV Darmstadt 98

1.14

FC Ingolstadt 04

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SV Darmstadt 98+0.00on par

FC Ingolstadt 04+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Darmstadt 98 ↓

FC Ingolstadt 04 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

SV Darmstadt 98 or draw

73%

SV Darmstadt 98 or FC Ingolstadt 04

75%

Draw or FC Ingolstadt 04

52%

Winning margin

SV Darmstadt 98 wins by 2+

25%

FC Ingolstadt 04 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

SV Darmstadt 98 1+ goals

80%

SV Darmstadt 98 2+ goals

47%

SV Darmstadt 98 3+ goals

22%

FC Ingolstadt 04 1+ goals

68%

FC Ingolstadt 04 2+ goals

31%

FC Ingolstadt 04 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

SV Darmstadt 98 (draw refunded)

64%

FC Ingolstadt 04 (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Darmstadt 98 at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.14 · 109 matches

FC Ingolstadt 04 away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.36 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.83 + FC Ingolstadt 04 defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.60

FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 1.12 + SV Darmstadt 98 defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

SV Darmstadt 98 scores more

48%

level

25%

FC Ingolstadt 04 scores more

27%

SV Darmstadt 98 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "SV Darmstadt 98 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

A. Cohen

FC Ingolstadt 04 · M

7.6

Match Events

2'

D. LezcanoPenalty

28'

48'

53'

54'

60'

Marvin Mehlem← J. Wurtz

63'

Thorsten Röcher

63'

Thorsten Röcher

64'

Paulo Otávio← R. Leipertz

70'

S. Kutschke← D. Lezcano

73'

Marcel Gaus

75'

F. Platte← Y. Stark

82'

Robin Krausse

83'

T. KempePenalty

90'

T. Boyd← S. Dursun

90'

O. Osawe← S. Kittel

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SVFC

Overview

59%Possession41%

17Total Shots6

8Corners2

13Fouls21

Shots

17Total Shots6

1On Target2

10Off Target2

6Blocked2

8Inside Box3

9Outside Box3

Passing

59%Possession41%

401Total Passes292

295Accurate Passes184

74%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

13Fouls21

2Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

1Offsides0