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FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Darmstadt 98 — DFB Pokal 2018

FC Ingolstadt 04
FC Ingolstadt 04
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
SV Darmstadt 98
SV Darmstadt 98
M. Warming 84'
T. Kempe 42' (pen)
P. Tietz 15'
8/1/2022DFB PokalDFB Pokal · 1st RoundAudi-Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

FC Ingolstadt 0420%
×Draw22%
SV Darmstadt 9857%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Ingolstadt 04
1.02
SV Darmstadt 98
1.88

SV Darmstadt 98 creates 84% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 10 away

creates per match

FC Ingolstadt 04
0.75
SV Darmstadt 98
2.00

allows per match

FC Ingolstadt 04
1.75
SV Darmstadt 98
1.30

finishing

FC Ingolstadt 04+0.00on par
SV Darmstadt 98+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Ingolstadt 04 ↓

SV Darmstadt 98 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

FC Ingolstadt 04 or draw
43%
FC Ingolstadt 04 or SV Darmstadt 98
78%
Draw or SV Darmstadt 98
80%

Winning margin

FC Ingolstadt 04 wins by 2+
7%
SV Darmstadt 98 wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

FC Ingolstadt 04 1+ goals
64%
FC Ingolstadt 04 2+ goals
27%
FC Ingolstadt 04 3+ goals
8%
SV Darmstadt 98 1+ goals
85%
SV Darmstadt 98 2+ goals
56%
SV Darmstadt 98 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

FC Ingolstadt 04 (draw refunded)
26%
SV Darmstadt 98 (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Ingolstadt 04 at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

SV Darmstadt 98 away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.75 + SV Darmstadt 98 defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.02

SV Darmstadt 98 attack 2.00 + FC Ingolstadt 04 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

FC Ingolstadt 04 scores more
20%
level
22%
SV Darmstadt 98 scores more
57%

SV Darmstadt 98 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "SV Darmstadt 98 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

40
M. PonathFC Ingolstadt 04FC Ingolstadt 04 · G
8.9

Match Events

3'
Markus Ponath
15'
P. Tietz↳ M. Mehlem
42'
T. KempePenalty
43'
Merlin Röhl
61'
P. Testroet← H. Sarpei
63'
Patrick Schmidt
63'
M. Warming← B. Manu
77'
V. Sulejmani← J. Hawkins
77'
J. Butler← P. Schmidt
79'
F. Ronstadt← M. Mehlem
79'
E. Karic← T. Kempe
84'
M. Warming↳ E. Karic
86'
F. Torsiello← P. Tietz
87'
A. Llugiqi← M. Doumbouya
87'
D. Linsmayer← T. Schröck
87'
Y. Ben Balla← F. Schnellhardt

Possession

37%FC

Shots

8FC

Pass accuracy

45%FC

Statistics

FCSV
Overview
37%Possession63%
8Total Shots26
4Corners6
16Fouls11
Shots
8Total Shots26
3On Target13
1Off Target11
4Blocked2
2Inside Box22
6Outside Box4
Passing
37%Possession63%
311Total Passes533
215Accurate Passes448
69%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
10Saves3
Discipline
16Fouls11
3Yellow Cards0
4Offsides5

Match Recap: FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Darmstadt 98

SV Darmstadt 98 beat FC Ingolstadt 04 3-0 in DFB Pokal on August 1, 2022.

Goals: P. Tietz (15'), T. Kempe (42' pen), M. Warming (84').

SV Darmstadt 98 controlled possession (63%) and registered 26 shots to 8.

The match was played at Audi-Sportpark in Ingolstadt.