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FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Darmstadt 98 — 2. Bundesliga 2018

FC Ingolstadt 04
FC Ingolstadt 04
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
SV Darmstadt 98
SV Darmstadt 98
A. Seydel 82'
T. Skarke 14'
1/22/20222. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 20Audi-Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

FC Ingolstadt 0437%
×Draw25%
SV Darmstadt 9838%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Ingolstadt 04
1.43
SV Darmstadt 98
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 62 home / 111 away

creates per match

FC Ingolstadt 04
1.21
SV Darmstadt 98
1.50

allows per match

FC Ingolstadt 04
1.42
SV Darmstadt 98
1.65

finishing

FC Ingolstadt 04+0.00on par
SV Darmstadt 98+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Ingolstadt 04 ↓

SV Darmstadt 98 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

FC Ingolstadt 04 or draw
62%
FC Ingolstadt 04 or SV Darmstadt 98
75%
Draw or SV Darmstadt 98
63%

Winning margin

FC Ingolstadt 04 wins by 2+
17%
SV Darmstadt 98 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

FC Ingolstadt 04 1+ goals
76%
FC Ingolstadt 04 2+ goals
42%
FC Ingolstadt 04 3+ goals
17%
SV Darmstadt 98 1+ goals
77%
SV Darmstadt 98 2+ goals
43%
SV Darmstadt 98 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

FC Ingolstadt 04 (draw refunded)
49%
SV Darmstadt 98 (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Ingolstadt 04 at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.42 · 62 matches

SV Darmstadt 98 away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.65 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 1.21 + SV Darmstadt 98 defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.43

SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.50 + FC Ingolstadt 04 defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

FC Ingolstadt 04 scores more
37%
level
25%
SV Darmstadt 98 scores more
38%

SV Darmstadt 98 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "SV Darmstadt 98 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
P. PfeifferSV Darmstadt 98SV Darmstadt 98 · D
8.2

Match Events

10'
Tim Skarke
14'
T. Skarke↳ M. Bader
30'
Nico Antonitsch
46'
R. Jendrusch← D. Stojanovic
47'
Klaus Gjasula
60'
F. Bilbija← C. Gebauer
61'
D. Eckert← M. Gaus
72'
Florian Pick
73'
Fabian Holland
74'
M. Honsak← T. Skarke
74'
A. Seydel← L. Pfeiffer
78'
P. Schmidt← S. Kutschke
82'
A. Seydel
86'
D. Linsmayer← M. Röhl
87'
F. Schnellhardt← T. Kempe
88'
E. Berko← M. Mehlem
90+2'
J. Müller← K. Gjasula

Possession

44%FC

Shots

9FC

Pass accuracy

48%FC

Statistics

FCSV
Overview
44%Possession56%
9Total Shots31
1Corners6
13Fouls18
Shots
9Total Shots31
3On Target10
4Off Target9
2Blocked12
4Inside Box20
5Outside Box11
Passing
44%Possession56%
342Total Passes442
255Accurate Passes355
75%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
8Saves3
Discipline
13Fouls18
2Yellow Cards3

2. Bundesliga: FC Ingolstadt 04 0–2 SV Darmstadt 98

SV Darmstadt 98 beat FC Ingolstadt 04 2-0 in 2. Bundesliga on January 22, 2022.

Goals: T. Skarke (14'), A. Seydel (82').

SV Darmstadt 98 controlled possession (56%) and registered 31 shots to 9.

The match was played at Audi-Sportpark in Ingolstadt.