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Suwon City FC vs Busan I Park — K League 1 2026

Suwon City FC
Suwon City FC
AET
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Busan I Park
Busan I Park
12/9/2023K League 1K League 1 · Relegation RoundSuwon Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Suwon City FC44%
×Draw24%
Busan I Park32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Suwon City FC
1.62
Busan I Park
1.36

Suwon City FC creates 19% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 15 away

creates per match

Suwon City FC
1.57
Busan I Park
1.07

allows per match

Suwon City FC
1.66
Busan I Park
1.67

finishing

Suwon City FC+0.00on par
Busan I Park+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Suwon City FC ↓

Busan I Park →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Suwon City FC or draw
68%
Suwon City FC or Busan I Park
76%
Draw or Busan I Park
56%

Winning margin

Suwon City FC wins by 2+
22%
Busan I Park wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Suwon City FC 1+ goals
80%
Suwon City FC 2+ goals
48%
Suwon City FC 3+ goals
22%
Busan I Park 1+ goals
74%
Busan I Park 2+ goals
39%
Busan I Park 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Suwon City FC (draw refunded)
58%
Busan I Park (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Suwon City FC at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.66 · 96 matches

Busan I Park away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Suwon City FC attack 1.57 + Busan I Park defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.62

Busan I Park attack 1.07 + Suwon City FC defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Suwon City FC scores more
44%
level
24%
Busan I Park scores more
32%

Suwon City FC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Suwon City FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Suwon City FC vs Busan I Park

Suwon City FC beat Busan I Park 2-1 in K League 1 on December 9, 2023.

The match was played at Suwon Sports Complex in Suwon.