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Busan I Park vs Suwon City FC — K League 2 2026

Busan I Park
Busan I Park
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Suwon City FC
Suwon City FC
10/5/2019K League 2K League 2 · Round 32Busan Gudeok Stadium (Busan)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Busan I Park37%
×Draw26%
Suwon City FC37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Busan I Park
1.34
Suwon City FC
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 140 home / 59 away

creates per match

Busan I Park
1.41
Suwon City FC
1.47

allows per match

Busan I Park
1.24
Suwon City FC
1.27

finishing

Busan I Park+0.00on par
Suwon City FC+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Busan I Park ↓

Suwon City FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Busan I Park or draw
63%
Busan I Park or Suwon City FC
74%
Draw or Suwon City FC
63%

Winning margin

Busan I Park wins by 2+
17%
Suwon City FC wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Busan I Park 1+ goals
74%
Busan I Park 2+ goals
39%
Busan I Park 3+ goals
15%
Suwon City FC 1+ goals
74%
Suwon City FC 2+ goals
39%
Suwon City FC 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Busan I Park (draw refunded)
50%
Suwon City FC (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Busan I Park at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.24 · 140 matches

Suwon City FC away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.27 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Busan I Park attack 1.41 + Suwon City FC defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.34

Suwon City FC attack 1.47 + Busan I Park defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Busan I Park scores more
37%
level
26%
Suwon City FC scores more
37%

Busan I Park at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Busan I Park will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Busan I Park vs Suwon City FC

Busan I Park beat Suwon City FC 2-0 in K League 2 on October 5, 2019.

The match was played at Busan Gudeok Stadium (Busan).