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Suwon City FC vs Busan I Park — FA Cup 2019

Suwon City FC
Suwon City FC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Busan I Park
Busan I Park
7/15/2020FA CupFA Cup · 8th FinalsSuwon Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Suwon City FC57%
×Draw20%
Busan I Park23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Suwon City FC
2.33
Busan I Park
1.42

Suwon City FC creates 64% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Suwon City FC
3.33
Busan I Park
1.17

allows per match

Suwon City FC
1.67
Busan I Park
1.33

finishing

Suwon City FC+0.00on par
Busan I Park+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Suwon City FC ↓

Busan I Park →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Suwon City FC or draw
77%
Suwon City FC or Busan I Park
80%
Draw or Busan I Park
43%

Winning margin

Suwon City FC wins by 2+
36%
Busan I Park wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Suwon City FC 1+ goals
90%
Suwon City FC 2+ goals
67%
Suwon City FC 3+ goals
41%
Busan I Park 1+ goals
76%
Busan I Park 2+ goals
41%
Busan I Park 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Suwon City FC (draw refunded)
72%
Busan I Park (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Suwon City FC at home — creates 3.33, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Busan I Park away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Suwon City FC attack 3.33 + Busan I Park defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.33

Busan I Park attack 1.17 + Suwon City FC defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Suwon City FC scores more
57%
level
20%
Busan I Park scores more
23%

Suwon City FC at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Suwon City FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Suwon City FC 0–1 Busan I Park

Busan I Park beat Suwon City FC 1-0 in FA Cup on July 15, 2020.

The match was played at Suwon Sports Complex in Suwon.