Busan I Park 2–1 Suwon City FC: Result & Stats

Busan I Park

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Suwon City FC

12/6/2023

K League 1 · Relegation RoundBusan Asiad Main Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Busan I Park41%

×Draw28%

Suwon City FC30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Busan I ParkExpected goals in this matchSuwon City FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.03

Busan I Park

1.25

Suwon City FC

1.03

Busan I Park creates 21% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 97 away

0.87

creates per match

1.13

0.93

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Busan I Park

0.87

Suwon City FC

1.13

allows per match

Busan I Park

0.93

Suwon City FC

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Busan I Park+0.00on par

Suwon City FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Busan I Park ↓

Suwon City FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Busan I Park or draw

70%

Busan I Park or Suwon City FC

72%

Draw or Suwon City FC

59%

Winning margin

Busan I Park wins by 2+

18%

Suwon City FC wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Busan I Park 1+ goals

71%

Busan I Park 2+ goals

36%

Busan I Park 3+ goals

13%

Suwon City FC 1+ goals

64%

Suwon City FC 2+ goals

28%

Suwon City FC 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Busan I Park (draw refunded)

58%

Suwon City FC (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Busan I Park at home — creates 0.87, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

Suwon City FC away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.63 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Busan I Park attack 0.87 + Suwon City FC defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.25

Suwon City FC attack 1.13 + Busan I Park defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Busan I Park scores more

41%

level

28%

Suwon City FC scores more

30%

Busan I Park at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Busan I Park will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff