Sutton Utd 1–3 Oldham: Result & Stats | League #43

Sutton Utd

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Oldham

W. Davies 47'

J. Norwood 90+1'

C. Raglan 52'

M. Fondop-Talum 18'

10/19/2024

League #43 · Round 14VBS Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Sutton Utd32%

×Draw23%

Oldham45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sutton UtdExpected goals in this matchOldham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.75

Sutton Utd

1.46

Oldham

1.75

Oldham creates 20% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 13 away

1.61

creates per match

1.54

1.96

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Sutton Utd

1.61

Oldham

1.54

allows per match

Sutton Utd

1.96

Oldham

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sutton Utd+0.00on par

Oldham+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sutton Utd ↓

Oldham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Sutton Utd or draw

55%

Sutton Utd or Oldham

77%

Draw or Oldham

68%

Winning margin

Sutton Utd wins by 2+

15%

Oldham wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Sutton Utd 1+ goals

77%

Sutton Utd 2+ goals

43%

Sutton Utd 3+ goals

18%

Oldham 1+ goals

83%

Oldham 2+ goals

52%

Oldham 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Sutton Utd (draw refunded)

42%

Oldham (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sutton Utd at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.96 · 23 matches

Oldham away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sutton Utd attack 1.61 + Oldham defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.46

Oldham attack 1.54 + Sutton Utd defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sutton Utd scores more

32%

level

23%

Oldham scores more

45%

Oldham at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Oldham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

M. Fondop-Talum↳ M. Kitching

28'

S. Odelusi← L. Simper

47'

47'

51'

52'

57'

60'

J. Norwood← K. Drummond

63'

D. De Silva← J. Coley

63'

J. Sivi← A. Nadesan

71'

J. Caprice← W. Sutton

76'

J. Kay← J. Lundstram

89'

M. Rush← C. Waller

90+8'

J. Norwood

90+3'

J. Stretton← M. Fondop-Talum

90+3'

D. Gardner← T. Conlon

90+1'

J. Norwood↳ J. Caprice

Sutton

Oldham

1

Hudson

16

⚽

Raglan

6

Monthe

3

A

Kitching

2

Ogle

21

▼

Sutton

10

A

▼

Conlon

8

▼

Lundstram

26

Payne

9

⚽

▼

Fondop-Ta

31

▼

25

4

35

8

▼

Simper

18

▼

Waller

7

▼

Coley

3

Okoli

14

Barbrook

24

▼

Nadesan

23

Harris

9

⚽

Davies

Manager: S. Morison

28'▲S. Odelusi←▼L. Simper

63'▲D. De Silva←▼J. Coley

63'▲J. Sivi←▼A. Nadesan

89'▲M. Rush←▼C. Waller

Sutton Utd substitutes

6Odelusi11Silva19Sivi10Rush12Vaz17Boateng1Sims

Manager: M. Mellon

60'▲J. Norwood←▼K. Drummond

71'▲J. Caprice←▼W. Sutton

76'▲J. Kay←▼J. Lundstram

90+3'▲J. Stretton←▼M. Fondop-Talum

90+3'▲D. Gardner←▼T. Conlon

Oldham substitutes

30Norwood20Caprice11Kay15Stretton19Gardner35Moloney17Uchegbulam