Sutton Utd 1–2 Oldham: Result & Stats | League Two

Sutton Utd

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Oldham

8/28/2021

League Two · Round 5VBS Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Sutton Utd44%

×Draw26%

Oldham30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sutton UtdExpected goals in this matchOldham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.13

Sutton Utd

1.43

Oldham

1.13

Sutton Utd creates 27% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 111 away

1.41

creates per match

1.16

1.09

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Sutton Utd

1.41

Oldham

1.16

allows per match

Sutton Utd

1.09

Oldham

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sutton Utd+0.00on par

Oldham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sutton Utd ↓

Oldham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Sutton Utd or draw

70%

Sutton Utd or Oldham

74%

Draw or Oldham

56%

Winning margin

Sutton Utd wins by 2+

21%

Oldham wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sutton Utd 1+ goals

76%

Sutton Utd 2+ goals

42%

Sutton Utd 3+ goals

17%

Oldham 1+ goals

68%

Oldham 2+ goals

31%

Oldham 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Sutton Utd (draw refunded)

60%

Oldham (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sutton Utd at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.09 · 69 matches

Oldham away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.45 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sutton Utd attack 1.41 + Oldham defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.43

Oldham attack 1.16 + Sutton Utd defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sutton Utd scores more

44%

level

26%

Oldham scores more

30%

Sutton Utd at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sutton Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff