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Oldham vs Sutton Utd — League Two 2018

Oldham
Oldham
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Sutton Utd
Sutton Utd
W. Sutton 81'
H. Beautyman 77' (pen)
R. Korboa 49', 20'
3/22/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 26Boundary Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Oldham45%
×Draw25%
Sutton Utd31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oldham
1.59
Sutton Utd
1.27

Oldham creates 25% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 69 away

creates per match

Oldham
1.45
Sutton Utd
1.12

allows per match

Oldham
1.42
Sutton Utd
1.74

finishing

Oldham+0.00on par
Sutton Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oldham ↓

Sutton Utd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Oldham or draw
69%
Oldham or Sutton Utd
75%
Draw or Sutton Utd
55%

Winning margin

Oldham wins by 2+
23%
Sutton Utd wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Oldham 1+ goals
80%
Oldham 2+ goals
47%
Oldham 3+ goals
21%
Sutton Utd 1+ goals
72%
Sutton Utd 2+ goals
36%
Sutton Utd 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Oldham (draw refunded)
59%
Sutton Utd (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oldham at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.42 · 110 matches

Sutton Utd away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.74 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oldham attack 1.45 + Sutton Utd defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.59

Sutton Utd attack 1.12 + Oldham defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Oldham scores more
45%
level
25%
Sutton Utd scores more
31%

Oldham at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Oldham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19
R. KorboaSutton UtdSutton Utd · M
8.3

Match Events

20'
R. Korboa
49'
R. Korboa↳ K. Davis
60'
H. Beautyman← K. Davis
67'
H. Vaughan← A. Hunt
68'
T. Obadeyi← N. Adams
77'
H. BeautymanPenalty
81'
W. Sutton↳ J. Stobbs
82'
C. Dundas← Omar Bugiel
88'
K. Kouassi← R. Bennett

Possession

56%Oldham

Shots

12Oldham

Pass accuracy

54%Oldham

Statistics

OldhamSutton
Overview
56%Possession44%
12Total Shots16
6Corners7
7Fouls6
Shots
12Total Shots16
3On Target6
5Off Target7
4Blocked3
9Inside Box12
3Outside Box4
Passing
56%Possession44%
387Total Passes318
272Accurate Passes192
70%Pass Accuracy60%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
7Fouls6
3Offsides2

League Two: Oldham 1–3 Sutton Utd

Sutton Utd beat Oldham 3-1 in League Two on March 22, 2022.

Goals: R. Korboa (20', 49'), H. Beautyman (77' pen), W. Sutton (81').

Oldham controlled possession (56%) and registered 12 shots to 16.

The match was played at Boundary Park in Oldham, Greater Manchester.