Oldham 0–0 Sutton Utd: Result & Stats | League #43

Oldham

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sutton Utd

2/15/2025

League #43 · Round 32Boundary Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Oldham39%

×Draw29%

Sutton Utd32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OldhamExpected goals in this matchSutton Utd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.06

Oldham

1.19

Sutton Utd

1.06

Oldham creates 12% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 18 away

1.15

creates per match

1.11

1.00

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Oldham

1.15

Sutton Utd

1.11

allows per match

Oldham

1.00

Sutton Utd

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oldham+0.00on par

Sutton Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oldham ↓

Sutton Utd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Oldham or draw

68%

Oldham or Sutton Utd

71%

Draw or Sutton Utd

61%

Winning margin

Oldham wins by 2+

17%

Sutton Utd wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Oldham 1+ goals

70%

Oldham 2+ goals

33%

Oldham 3+ goals

12%

Sutton Utd 1+ goals

65%

Sutton Utd 2+ goals

29%

Sutton Utd 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Oldham (draw refunded)

55%

Sutton Utd (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oldham at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

Sutton Utd away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oldham attack 1.15 + Sutton Utd defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.19

Sutton Utd attack 1.11 + Oldham defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Oldham scores more

39%

level

29%

Sutton Utd scores more

32%

Oldham at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Oldham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff