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Sutton Utd vs Leyton Orient — League Two 2018

Sutton Utd
Sutton Utd
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Leyton Orient
Leyton Orient
T. James 26'
J. Rose 14' (OG)
4/15/2023League TwoLeague Two · Round 42VBS Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Sutton Utd40%
×Draw27%
Leyton Orient32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sutton Utd
1.30
Leyton Orient
1.13

Sutton Utd creates 15% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 94 away

creates per match

Sutton Utd
1.41
Leyton Orient
1.17

allows per match

Sutton Utd
1.09
Leyton Orient
1.20

finishing

Sutton Utd+0.00on par
Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sutton Utd ↓

Leyton Orient →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sutton Utd or draw
68%
Sutton Utd or Leyton Orient
73%
Draw or Leyton Orient
60%

Winning margin

Sutton Utd wins by 2+
18%
Leyton Orient wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sutton Utd 1+ goals
73%
Sutton Utd 2+ goals
37%
Sutton Utd 3+ goals
14%
Leyton Orient 1+ goals
68%
Leyton Orient 2+ goals
31%
Leyton Orient 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sutton Utd (draw refunded)
56%
Leyton Orient (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sutton Utd at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.09 · 69 matches

Leyton Orient away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.20 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sutton Utd attack 1.41 + Leyton Orient defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.30

Leyton Orient attack 1.17 + Sutton Utd defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sutton Utd scores more
40%
level
27%
Leyton Orient scores more
32%

Sutton Utd at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sutton Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
P. SmythLeyton OrientLeyton Orient · M
7.7

Match Events

14'
J. RoseOwn goal
22'
Lee Angol
26'
T. James↳ P. Smyth
57'
Thomas James
71'
C. Kelman← K. Sadlier
73'
Ruel Sotiriou
74'
K. Kouassi← J. Neufville
74'
D. Wilson← L. Angol
77'
J. Brown← D. Pratley
77'
A. Drinan← R. Sotiriou
89'
C. Clay← G. Moncur

Possession

37%Sutton

Shots

7Sutton

Pass accuracy

46%Sutton

Statistics

SuttonLeyton
Overview
37%Possession63%
7Total Shots14
2Corners3
10Fouls13
Shots
7Total Shots14
0On Target5
6Off Target5
1Blocked4
4Inside Box9
3Outside Box5
Passing
37%Possession63%
262Total Passes472
152Accurate Passes326
58%Pass Accuracy69%
Goalkeeping
3Saves0
Discipline
10Fouls13
1Yellow Cards2
0Offsides1

League Two: Sutton Utd 0–2 Leyton Orient

Leyton Orient beat Sutton Utd 2-0 in League Two on April 15, 2023.

Goals: J. Rose (14' o.g.), T. James (26').

Leyton Orient controlled possession (63%) and registered 14 shots to 7.

The match was played at VBS Community Stadium in Sutton, Surrey.