Sutton Utd 1–0 Leyton Orient: Result & Stats

Sutton Utd

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Leyton Orient

J. Kizzi 20'

4/9/2022

League Two · Round 41VBS Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Sutton Utd40%

×Draw27%

Leyton Orient32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sutton UtdExpected goals in this matchLeyton Orient

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.13

Sutton Utd

1.30

Leyton Orient

1.13

Sutton Utd creates 15% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 94 away

1.41

creates per match

1.17

1.09

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Sutton Utd

1.41

Leyton Orient

1.17

allows per match

Sutton Utd

1.09

Leyton Orient

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sutton Utd+0.00on par

Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sutton Utd ↓

Leyton Orient →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Sutton Utd or draw

68%

Sutton Utd or Leyton Orient

73%

Draw or Leyton Orient

60%

Winning margin

Sutton Utd wins by 2+

18%

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Sutton Utd 1+ goals

73%

Sutton Utd 2+ goals

37%

Sutton Utd 3+ goals

14%

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

68%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

31%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Sutton Utd (draw refunded)

56%

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sutton Utd at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.09 · 69 matches

Leyton Orient away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.20 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sutton Utd attack 1.41 + Leyton Orient defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.30

Leyton Orient attack 1.17 + Sutton Utd defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sutton Utd scores more

40%

level

27%

Leyton Orient scores more

32%

Sutton Utd at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sutton Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

J. Kizzi

Sutton Utd · D

8.3

Match Events

20'

J. Kizzi↳ R. Milsom

41'

Hector Kyprianou

56'

Omar Bugiel← R. Bennett

59'

Omar Bugiel

68'

R. Sotiriou← P. Smyth

75'

M. Young← D. Moss

79'

A. Smith← H. Beautyman

84'

D. Nkrumah← J. Sweeney

85'

Theodore Archibald

90+5'

Otis Khan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SuttonLeyton

Overview

30%Possession70%

7Total Shots9

4Corners5

14Fouls18

Shots

7Total Shots9

2On Target2

4Off Target4

1Blocked3

4Inside Box6

3Outside Box3

Passing

30%Possession70%

225Total Passes541

113Accurate Passes403

50%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls18

1Yellow Cards3

3Offsides0