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Leyton Orient vs Sutton Utd — League Two 2018

Leyton Orient
Leyton Orient
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sutton Utd
Sutton Utd
A. Smith 79' (OG)
P. Smyth 62'
12/17/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 22Brisbane Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Leyton Orient47%
×Draw25%
Sutton Utd27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leyton Orient
1.57
Sutton Utd
1.13

Leyton Orient creates 39% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 69 away

creates per match

Leyton Orient
1.41
Sutton Utd
1.12

allows per match

Leyton Orient
1.13
Sutton Utd
1.74

finishing

Leyton Orient+0.00on par
Sutton Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leyton Orient ↓

Sutton Utd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Leyton Orient or draw
73%
Leyton Orient or Sutton Utd
75%
Draw or Sutton Utd
53%

Winning margin

Leyton Orient wins by 2+
24%
Sutton Utd wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Leyton Orient 1+ goals
79%
Leyton Orient 2+ goals
46%
Leyton Orient 3+ goals
21%
Sutton Utd 1+ goals
68%
Sutton Utd 2+ goals
31%
Sutton Utd 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)
63%
Sutton Utd (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leyton Orient at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.13 · 98 matches

Sutton Utd away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.74 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leyton Orient attack 1.41 + Sutton Utd defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.57

Sutton Utd attack 1.12 + Leyton Orient defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Leyton Orient scores more
47%
level
25%
Sutton Utd scores more
27%

Leyton Orient at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Leyton Orient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2
T. JamesLeyton OrientLeyton Orient · D
7.5

Match Events

2'
Idris El Mizouni
32'
Louis John
56'
R. Hunt← D. Pratley
62'
P. Smyth
67'
C. Clay← I. El Mizouni
67'
T. Fadahunsi← H. Beautyman
76'
L. Gambin← W. Randall-Hurren
77'
R. Sotiriou← P. Smyth
79'
A. SmithOwn goal
89'
Theodore Archibald
90+2'
K. Kouassi← Omar Bugiel
90+2'
S. Hart← J. Neufville

Possession

62%Leyton

Shots

7Leyton

Pass accuracy

58%Leyton

Statistics

LeytonSutton
Overview
62%Possession38%
7Total Shots2
4Corners3
12Fouls16
Shots
7Total Shots2
1On Target1
3Off Target0
3Blocked1
3Inside Box1
4Outside Box1
Passing
62%Possession38%
409Total Passes248
273Accurate Passes120
67%Pass Accuracy48%
Goalkeeping
1Saves0
Discipline
12Fouls16
2Yellow Cards1
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Leyton Orient vs Sutton Utd

Leyton Orient beat Sutton Utd 2-0 in League Two on December 17, 2022.

Goals: P. Smyth (62'), A. Smith (79' o.g.).

Leyton Orient controlled possession (62%) and registered 7 shots to 2.

The match was played at Brisbane Road in London.