Leyton Orient 4–1 Sutton Utd: Result & Stats

Leyton Orient

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Sutton Utd

T. James 90+4'

H. Smith 82', 46'

T. Archibald 30'

I. Olaofe 18'

11/20/2021

League Two · Round 17The Breyer Group Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Leyton Orient47%

×Draw25%

Sutton Utd27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leyton OrientExpected goals in this matchSutton Utd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.13

Leyton Orient

1.57

Sutton Utd

1.13

Leyton Orient creates 39% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 69 away

1.41

creates per match

1.12

1.13

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Leyton Orient

1.41

Sutton Utd

1.12

allows per match

Leyton Orient

1.13

Sutton Utd

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Sutton Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leyton Orient ↓

Sutton Utd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Leyton Orient or draw

73%

Leyton Orient or Sutton Utd

75%

Draw or Sutton Utd

53%

Winning margin

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

24%

Sutton Utd wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

79%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

46%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

21%

Sutton Utd 1+ goals

68%

Sutton Utd 2+ goals

31%

Sutton Utd 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

63%

Sutton Utd (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leyton Orient at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.13 · 98 matches

Sutton Utd away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.74 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leyton Orient attack 1.41 + Sutton Utd defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.57

Sutton Utd attack 1.12 + Leyton Orient defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Leyton Orient scores more

47%

level

25%

Sutton Utd scores more

27%

Leyton Orient at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Leyton Orient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

H. Smith

Leyton Orient · F

9.5

Match Events

18'

I. Olaofe

30'

T. Archibald↳ H. Smith

46'

H. Smith

57'

Omar Bugiel← R. Bennett

68'

Shadrach Ogie

69'

J. Barden← J. Kizzi

77'

David Ajiboye

82'

D. Pratley← H. Kyprianou

82'

H. Smith

85'

D. Wilson← D. Ajiboye

86'

P. Smyth← A. Drinan

88'

Craig Eastmond

90+4'

T. James↳ T. Archibald

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeytonSutton

Overview

58%Possession42%

18Total Shots10

7Corners6

10Fouls11

Shots

18Total Shots10

4On Target4

12Off Target3

2Blocked3

14Inside Box7

4Outside Box3

Passing

58%Possession42%

354Total Passes255

208Accurate Passes119

59%Pass Accuracy47%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

10Fouls11

1Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1