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Sunderland vs Hull City — Championship 2025

Sunderland
Sunderland
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Hull City
Hull City
Fábio Carvalho 71'
1/19/2024ChampionshipChampionship · Round 28Stadium of Light

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Sunderland33%
×Draw26%
Hull City41%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sunderland
1.27
Hull City
1.43

Hull City creates 13% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 49 away

creates per match

Sunderland
1.17
Hull City
1.27

allows per match

Sunderland
1.58
Hull City
1.37

finishing

Sunderland+0.00on par
Hull City+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sunderland ↓

Hull City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Sunderland or draw
59%
Sunderland or Hull City
74%
Draw or Hull City
67%

Winning margin

Sunderland wins by 2+
14%
Hull City wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Sunderland 1+ goals
72%
Sunderland 2+ goals
36%
Sunderland 3+ goals
14%
Hull City 1+ goals
76%
Hull City 2+ goals
42%
Hull City 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Sunderland (draw refunded)
45%
Hull City (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sunderland at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.58 · 12 matches

Hull City away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.37 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sunderland attack 1.17 + Hull City defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.27

Hull City attack 1.27 + Sunderland defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sunderland scores more
33%
level
26%
Hull City scores more
41%

Hull City at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hull City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20
J. ClarkeSunderlandSunderland · M
8.2

Match Events

17'
Ozan Tufan
30'
Greg Docherty
32'
Lewie Coyle
40'
Tyler Morton
43'
Regan Slater
48'
Pierre Ekwah
66'
B. Sharp← O. Tufan
71'
Fábio Carvalho↳ T. Morton
72'
Luís Semedo← N. Rusyn
81'
A. Ba← P. Ekwah
81'
T. Pembélé← J. Seelt
83'
Ryan Allsop
83'
S. McLoughlin← Fábio Carvalho
88'
A. Sayyadmanesh← J. Lokilo
89'
Matty Jacob
90+4'
Jack Clarke

Possession

58%Sunderland

Shots

15Sunderland

Pass accuracy

52%Sunderland

Statistics

SunderlandHull
Overview
58%Possession42%
15Total Shots2
0.77Expected Goals (xG)0.11
12Corners1
12Fouls17
Shots
15Total Shots2
3On Target2
6Off Target0
6Blocked0
6Inside Box2
9Outside Box0
Passing
58%Possession42%
538Total Passes417
484Accurate Passes350
90%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
12Fouls17
2Yellow Cards7
1Offsides1

Championship: Sunderland 0–1 Hull City

Hull City beat Sunderland 1-0 in Championship on January 19, 2024.

Goals: Fábio Carvalho (71').

Sunderland controlled possession (58%) and registered 15 shots to 2.

The match was played at Stadium of Light in Sunderland.