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Hull City vs Sunderland — Championship 2025

Hull City
Hull City
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sunderland
Sunderland
W. Isidor 63'
10/20/2024ChampionshipChampionship · Round 10The MKM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Hull City33%
×Draw27%
Sunderland40%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hull City
1.21
Sunderland
1.35

Sunderland creates 12% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 14 away

creates per match

Hull City
1.13
Sunderland
1.36

allows per match

Hull City
1.34
Sunderland
1.29

finishing

Hull City+0.00on par
Sunderland+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

Sunderland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Hull City or draw
60%
Hull City or Sunderland
73%
Draw or Sunderland
67%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+
14%
Sunderland wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals
70%
Hull City 2+ goals
34%
Hull City 3+ goals
12%
Sunderland 1+ goals
74%
Sunderland 2+ goals
39%
Sunderland 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)
46%
Sunderland (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.34 · 47 matches

Sunderland away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.13 + Sunderland defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.21

Sunderland attack 1.36 + Hull City defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hull City scores more
33%
level
27%
Sunderland scores more
40%

Sunderland at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sunderland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2
L. CoyleHull CityHull City · D
7.9

Match Events

63'
Alfie Jones
63'
W. Isidor↳ D. Neil
65'
L. Millar← A. Kamara
69'
R. Slater← G. Puerta
69'
K. Palmer← M. Mehlem
75'
A. Connolly← W. Isidor
83'
Patrick Roberts
85'
Ó. Zambrano← X. Simons
85'
João Pedro← C. Hughes
85'
A. Browne← P. Roberts

Possession

50%Hull

Shots

9Hull

Pass accuracy

49%Hull

Statistics

HullSunderland
Overview
50%Possession50%
9Total Shots10
0.49Expected Goals (xG)1.05
4Corners4
12Fouls8
Shots
9Total Shots10
1On Target2
6Off Target3
2Blocked5
4Inside Box9
5Outside Box1
Passing
50%Possession50%
455Total Passes458
384Accurate Passes398
84%Pass Accuracy87%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
0.30Goals Prevented0.30
Discipline
12Fouls8
1Yellow Cards1
2Offsides1

Championship: Hull City 0–1 Sunderland

Sunderland beat Hull City 1-0 in Championship on October 20, 2024.

Goals: W. Isidor (63').

Hull City controlled possession (50%) and registered 9 shots to 10.

The match was played at The MKM Stadium in Hull.