Hull City 0–1 Sunderland: Result & Stats

Hull City

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sunderland

J. Clarke 82'

12/26/2023

Championship · Round 24The MKM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Hull City33%

×Draw27%

Sunderland40%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hull CityExpected goals in this matchSunderland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.35

Hull City

1.21

Sunderland

1.35

Sunderland creates 12% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 14 away

1.13

creates per match

1.36

1.34

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Hull City

1.13

Sunderland

1.36

allows per match

Hull City

1.34

Sunderland

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hull City+0.00on par

Sunderland+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

Sunderland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Hull City or draw

60%

Hull City or Sunderland

73%

Draw or Sunderland

67%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+

14%

Sunderland wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals

70%

Hull City 2+ goals

34%

Hull City 3+ goals

12%

Sunderland 1+ goals

74%

Sunderland 2+ goals

39%

Sunderland 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)

46%

Sunderland (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.34 · 47 matches

Sunderland away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.13 + Sunderland defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.21

Sunderland attack 1.36 + Hull City defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hull City scores more

33%

level

27%

Sunderland scores more

40%

Sunderland at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sunderland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

J. Clarke

Sunderland · M

8.9

Match Events

44'

A. Aouchiche← B. Dack

60'

J. Lokilo← A. Connolly

60'

C. Christie← L. Coyle

74'

A. Pritchard← P. Roberts

82'

88'

89'

89'

89'

N. Triantis← J. Clarke

90+4'

Nectarios Triantis

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HullSunderland

Overview

57%Possession43%

10Total Shots17

0.81Expected Goals (xG)1.03

3Corners7

6Fouls8

Shots

10Total Shots17

6On Target3

1Off Target5

3Blocked9

7Inside Box10

3Outside Box7

Passing

57%Possession43%

628Total Passes481

554Accurate Passes401

88%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

6Fouls8

1Yellow Cards1

3Offsides0