Sunderland 4–4 Hull City: Result & Stats

Sunderland

FT

4 – 4

HT: 2 – 2

Hull City

J. Clarke 81'

A. Diallo 73' (pen), 22'

J. Gelhardt 21'

O. Tufan 90+8' (pen), 11'

R. Slater 66'

A. Sayyadmanesh 25'

4/7/2023

Championship · Round 40Stadium of Light

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Sunderland33%

×Draw26%

Hull City41%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SunderlandExpected goals in this matchHull City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.43

Sunderland

1.27

Hull City

1.43

Hull City creates 13% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 49 away

1.17

creates per match

1.27

1.58

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Sunderland

1.17

Hull City

1.27

allows per match

Sunderland

1.58

Hull City

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sunderland+0.00on par

Hull City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sunderland ↓

Hull City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Sunderland or draw

59%

Sunderland or Hull City

74%

Draw or Hull City

67%

Winning margin

Sunderland wins by 2+

14%

Hull City wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Sunderland 1+ goals

72%

Sunderland 2+ goals

36%

Sunderland 3+ goals

14%

Hull City 1+ goals

76%

Hull City 2+ goals

42%

Hull City 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Sunderland (draw refunded)

45%

Hull City (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sunderland at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.58 · 12 matches

Hull City away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.37 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sunderland attack 1.17 + Hull City defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.27

Hull City attack 1.27 + Sunderland defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sunderland scores more

33%

level

26%

Hull City scores more

41%

Hull City at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hull City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

J. Clarke

Sunderland · M

9.7

Match Events

11'

O. Tufan↳ R. Slater

21'

J. Gelhardt↳ J. Clarke

22'

A. Diallo↳ J. Clarke

25'

A. Sayyadmanesh

34'

Allahyar Sayyadmanesh

58'

G. Docherty← D. Pelkas

65'

C. Elder← L. Coyle

66'

R. Slater↳ C. Elder

73'

A. DialloPenalty

75'

A. Pritchard← J. Gelhardt

75'

P. Ekwah← É. Michut

81'

J. Clarke↳ P. Roberts

83'

Callum Elder

85'

M. Ebiowei← A. Sayyadmanesh

86'

R. Longman← J. Seri

90+8'

O. TufanPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SunderlandHull

Overview

52%Possession48%

18Total Shots9

1Corners0

9Fouls16

Shots

18Total Shots9

7On Target7

7Off Target2

4Blocked0

15Inside Box7

3Outside Box2

Passing

52%Possession48%

509Total Passes478

435Accurate Passes382

85%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls16

0Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1